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Title: Predicting Human Cooperation

Journal Article · · PLoS ONE
 [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)
  2. Tianjin Univ. of Technology (China)
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The Prisoner’s Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner’s Dilemma (defection), when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner’s Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner’s Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. As a result, we demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

Research Organization:
Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
OSTI ID:
1377075
Journal Information:
PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, Issue 5; ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher:
Public Library of ScienceCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 7 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (1)

Online Learning in Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma to Mimic Human Behavior preprint January 2020

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Related Subjects

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
Game theory
Prisoner's dilemma
Games
Behavior
Inertia
Forecasting
Simulation and modeling
Experimental design