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Title: Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

Abstract

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4more » mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4]
  1. Univ. de Concepcion, Concepcion (Chile); Univ. de La Frontera, Temuco (Chile)
  2. Univ. de Concepcion, Concepcion (Chile)
  3. Univ. de La Frontera, Temuco (Chile)
  4. Univ. de Chile, Santiago (Chile)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Office of Scientific and Technical Information, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1376691
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
SpringerPlus
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2193-1801
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Rainfall climatology bias correction; Climate change projections; ENSO influence; IPCC TAR and AR

Citation Formats

Orrego, R., Abarca-del-Rio, R., Avila, A., and Morales, L. Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile). United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3157-6.
Orrego, R., Abarca-del-Rio, R., Avila, A., & Morales, L. Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile). United States. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3157-6.
Orrego, R., Abarca-del-Rio, R., Avila, A., and Morales, L. Wed . "Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)". United States. doi:10.1186/s40064-016-3157-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376691.
@article{osti_1376691,
title = {Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)},
author = {Orrego, R. and Abarca-del-Rio, R. and Avila, A. and Morales, L.},
abstractNote = {Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.},
doi = {10.1186/s40064-016-3157-6},
journal = {SpringerPlus},
number = 1,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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