# What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)

## Abstract

Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if you are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.

- Authors:

- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

- Publication Date:

- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOD; USDOE

- OSTI Identifier:
- 1375168

- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-16-28977

Journal ID: ISSN 0033-524X

- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396

- Resource Type:
- Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript

- Journal Name:
- Quality Progress

- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 50; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0033-524X

- Publisher:
- American Society for Quality Control

- Country of Publication:
- United States

- Language:
- English

- Subject:
- 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; Mathematics

### Citation Formats

```
Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela.
```*What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)*. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web.

```
Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela.
```*What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)*. United States.

```
Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela. Wed .
"What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)". United States.
doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375168.
```

```
@article{osti_1375168,
```

title = {What’s Driving Uncertainty? The Model or the Model Parameters (What’s Driving Uncertainty? The influences of model and model parameters in data analysis)},

author = {Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela},

abstractNote = {Here, one of the substantial improvements to the practice of data analysis in recent decades is the change from reporting just a point estimate for a parameter or characteristic, to now including a summary of uncertainty for that estimate. Understanding the precision of the estimate for the quantity of interest provides better understanding of what to expect and how well we are able to predict future behavior from the process. For example, when we report a sample average as an estimate of the population mean, it is good practice to also provide a confidence interval (or credible interval, if you are doing a Bayesian analysis) to accompany that summary. This helps to calibrate what ranges of values are reasonable given the variability observed in the sample and the amount of data that were included in producing the summary.},

doi = {},

journal = {Quality Progress},

number = 3,

volume = 50,

place = {United States},

year = {Wed Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},

month = {Wed Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}

}