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Title: Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

Abstract

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch variousmore » consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1373850
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-126764
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Book
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Environmental Economics

Citation Formats

Rose, Adam, Prager, Fynn, Chen, Zhenhua, Chatterjee, Samrat, Wei, Dan, Heatwole, Nathaniel, and Warren, Eric. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9.
Rose, Adam, Prager, Fynn, Chen, Zhenhua, Chatterjee, Samrat, Wei, Dan, Heatwole, Nathaniel, & Warren, Eric. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool. United States. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9.
Rose, Adam, Prager, Fynn, Chen, Zhenhua, Chatterjee, Samrat, Wei, Dan, Heatwole, Nathaniel, and Warren, Eric. Sat . "Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool". United States. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9.
@article{osti_1373850,
title = {Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool},
author = {Rose, Adam and Prager, Fynn and Chen, Zhenhua and Chatterjee, Samrat and Wei, Dan and Heatwole, Nathaniel and Warren, Eric},
abstractNote = {This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.},
doi = {10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Apr 15 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Sat Apr 15 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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