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Title: Construction of Tolerance Bounds for a Multivariate Response Associated with a Covariate: A Case Study.

Abstract

Abstract not provided.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1372189
Report Number(s):
SAND2016-6781C
645252
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proposed for presentation at the Joint Statistical Meetings 2016 held July 29 - August 4, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois, United States of Americal.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Thomas, Edward, King, Caleb, Cap, Jerome S., and Montoya, Angela Cork. Construction of Tolerance Bounds for a Multivariate Response Associated with a Covariate: A Case Study.. United States: N. p., 2016. Web.
Thomas, Edward, King, Caleb, Cap, Jerome S., & Montoya, Angela Cork. Construction of Tolerance Bounds for a Multivariate Response Associated with a Covariate: A Case Study.. United States.
Thomas, Edward, King, Caleb, Cap, Jerome S., and Montoya, Angela Cork. Fri . "Construction of Tolerance Bounds for a Multivariate Response Associated with a Covariate: A Case Study.". United States. doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1372189.
@article{osti_1372189,
title = {Construction of Tolerance Bounds for a Multivariate Response Associated with a Covariate: A Case Study.},
author = {Thomas, Edward and King, Caleb and Cap, Jerome S. and Montoya, Angela Cork},
abstractNote = {Abstract not provided.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

Conference:
Other availability
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  • Abstract not provided.
  • The commitment to pursue a petroleum venture requires confidence in finding commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. This confidence should be based on both the probability of having a working hydrocarbon system (geotechnical success) and generating a profit (economic success). A balance is needed between risk assessment and risk tolerance, the assessment reflecting what is known, and tolerance reflecting what is hoped for. If the gap between risk assessment and risk tolerance is unacceptable, information is acquired to hopefully increase the probabilities of geotechnical and economic success to more acceptable levels. An information strategy is derived that will reduce the critical uncertaintiesmore » and result in an acceptable confidence level. The value of information is driven by the change in Expected Monetary Value (EMV) after the information is acquired. A decision tree is employed to predict the outcomes of the new information and select the most value adding option. The difficulty that arises is predicting to what extent the information will affect the geotechnical and economic assessments. The effect of information also changes as the venture matures through reconnaissance, evaluation, development, and production stages. A case is built in the North Sea where a Gravimetric Survey was used to assess concerns about location, source, reservoir, trap, seal, and migration. A method for consistently predicting the change in risk with increased information will be presented. An incremental increase in EW is shown at each stage of the venture resulting in a convergence between risk assessment and risk tolerance.« less
  • The commitment to pursue a petroleum venture requires confidence in finding commercial quantities of hydrocarbons. This confidence should be based on both the probability of having a working hydrocarbon system (geotechnical success) and generating a profit (economic success). A balance is needed between risk assessment and risk tolerance, the assessment reflecting what is known, and tolerance reflecting what is hoped for. If the gap between risk assessment and risk tolerance is unacceptable, information is acquired to hopefully increase the probabilities of geotechnical and economic success to more acceptable levels. An information strategy is derived that will reduce the critical uncertaintiesmore » and result in an acceptable confidence level. The value of information is driven by the change in Expected Monetary Value (EMV) after the information is acquired. A decision tree is employed to predict the outcomes of the new information and select the most value adding option. The difficulty that arises is predicting to what extent the information will affect the geotechnical and economic assessments. The effect of information also changes as the venture matures through reconnaissance, evaluation, development, and production stages. A case is built in the North Sea where a Gravimetric Survey was used to assess concerns about location, source, reservoir, trap, seal, and migration. A method for consistently predicting the change in risk with increased information will be presented. An incremental increase in EW is shown at each stage of the venture resulting in a convergence between risk assessment and risk tolerance.« less
  • Abstract not provided.