skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: An aerosol activation metamodel of v1.2.0 of the pyrcel cloud parcel model: development and offline assessment for use in an aerosol–climate model

Abstract

We describe an emulator of a detailed cloud parcel model which has been trained to assess droplet nucleation from a complex, multimodal aerosol size distribution simulated by a global aerosol–climate model. The emulator is constructed using a sensitivity analysis approach (polynomial chaos expansion) which reproduces the behavior of the targeted parcel model across the full range of aerosol properties and meteorology simulated by the parent climate model. An iterative technique using aerosol fields sampled from a global model is used to identify the critical aerosol size distribution parameters necessary for accurately predicting activation. Across the large parameter space used to train them, the emulators estimate cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) with a mean relative error of 9.2% for aerosol populations without giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and 6.9% when including them. Versus a parcel model driven by those same aerosol fields, the best-performing emulator has a mean relative error of 4.6%, which is comparable with two commonly used activation schemes also evaluated here (which have mean relative errors of 2.9 and 6.7%, respectively). We identify the potential for regional biases in modeled CDNC, particularly in oceanic regimes, where our best-performing emulator tends to overpredict by 7%, whereas the reference activationmore » schemes range in mean relative error from -3 to 7%. The emulators which include the effects of giant CCN are more accurate in continental regimes (mean relative error of 0.3%) but strongly overestimate CDNC in oceanic regimes by up to 22%, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Finally, the biases in CDNC resulting from the subjective choice of activation scheme could potentially influence the magnitude of the indirect effect diagnosed from the model incorporating it.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1368370
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-94ER61937; 1122374; AGS-1339264
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Rothenberg, Daniel, and Wang, Chien. An aerosol activation metamodel of v1.2.0 of the pyrcel cloud parcel model: development and offline assessment for use in an aerosol–climate model. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1817-2017.
Rothenberg, Daniel, & Wang, Chien. An aerosol activation metamodel of v1.2.0 of the pyrcel cloud parcel model: development and offline assessment for use in an aerosol–climate model. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1817-2017.
Rothenberg, Daniel, and Wang, Chien. Thu . "An aerosol activation metamodel of v1.2.0 of the pyrcel cloud parcel model: development and offline assessment for use in an aerosol–climate model". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1817-2017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1368370.
@article{osti_1368370,
title = {An aerosol activation metamodel of v1.2.0 of the pyrcel cloud parcel model: development and offline assessment for use in an aerosol–climate model},
author = {Rothenberg, Daniel and Wang, Chien},
abstractNote = {We describe an emulator of a detailed cloud parcel model which has been trained to assess droplet nucleation from a complex, multimodal aerosol size distribution simulated by a global aerosol–climate model. The emulator is constructed using a sensitivity analysis approach (polynomial chaos expansion) which reproduces the behavior of the targeted parcel model across the full range of aerosol properties and meteorology simulated by the parent climate model. An iterative technique using aerosol fields sampled from a global model is used to identify the critical aerosol size distribution parameters necessary for accurately predicting activation. Across the large parameter space used to train them, the emulators estimate cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) with a mean relative error of 9.2% for aerosol populations without giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and 6.9% when including them. Versus a parcel model driven by those same aerosol fields, the best-performing emulator has a mean relative error of 4.6%, which is comparable with two commonly used activation schemes also evaluated here (which have mean relative errors of 2.9 and 6.7%, respectively). We identify the potential for regional biases in modeled CDNC, particularly in oceanic regimes, where our best-performing emulator tends to overpredict by 7%, whereas the reference activation schemes range in mean relative error from -3 to 7%. The emulators which include the effects of giant CCN are more accurate in continental regimes (mean relative error of 0.3%) but strongly overestimate CDNC in oceanic regimes by up to 22%, particularly in the Southern Ocean. Finally, the biases in CDNC resulting from the subjective choice of activation scheme could potentially influence the magnitude of the indirect effect diagnosed from the model incorporating it.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-1817-2017},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 4,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Thu Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Save / Share:
  • Many global aerosol and climate models, including the widely used Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), have large biases in predicting aerosols in remote regions such as upper troposphere and high latitudes. In this study, we conduct CAM5 sensitivity simulations to understand the role of key processes associated with aerosol transformation and wet removal affecting the vertical and horizontal long-range transport of aerosols to the remote regions. Improvements are made to processes that are currently not well represented in CAM5, which are guided by surface and aircraft measurements together with results from a multi-scale aerosol-climate model (PNNL-MMF) that explicitly representsmore » convection and aerosol-cloud interactions at cloud-resolving scales. We pay particular attention to black carbon (BC) due to its importance in the Earth system and the availability of measurements. We introduce into CAM5 a new unified scheme for convective transport and aerosol wet removal with explicit aerosol activation above convective cloud base. This new implementation reduces the excessive BC aloft to better simulate observed BC profiles that show decreasing mixing ratios in the mid- to upper-troposphere. After implementing this new unified convective scheme, we examine wet removal of submicron aerosols that occurs primarily through cloud processes. The wet removal depends strongly on the sub-grid scale liquid cloud fraction and the rate of conversion of liquid water to precipitation. These processes lead to very strong wet removal of BC and other aerosols over mid- to high latitudes during winter months. With our improvements, the Arctic BC burden has a10-fold (5-fold) increase in the winter (summer) months, resulting in a much better simulation of the BC seasonal cycle as well. Arctic sulphate and other aerosol species also increase but to a lesser extent. An explicit treatment of BC aging with slower aging assumptions produces an additional 30-fold (5-fold) increase in the Arctic winter (summer) BC burden. This BC aging treatment, however, has minimal effect on other under-predicted species. Interestingly, our modifications to CAM5 that aim at improving prediction of high-latitude and upper tropospheric aerosols also produce much better AOD and AAOD over various other regions globally when compared to multi-year AERONET retrievals. The improved aerosol distributions have impacts on other aspects of CAM5, improving the simulation of global mean liquid water path and cloud forcing.« less
  • While the effects of land use change in urban areas have been widely examined, the combined effects of climate and land use change on the quality of urban and urbanizing streams have received much less attention. We describe a modeling framework that is applicable to the evaluation of potential changes in urban water quality and associated hydrologic changes in response to ongoing climate and landscape alteration. The grid-based spatially distributed model, DHSVM-WQ, is an outgrowth of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) that incorporates modules for assessing hydrology and water quality in urbanized watersheds at a high spatial and temporal resolution.more » DHSVM-WQ simulates surface runoff quality and in-stream processes that control the transport of nonpoint-source (NPS) pollutants into urban streams. We configure DHSVM-WQ for three partially urbanized catchments in the Puget Sound region to evaluate the water quality responses to current conditions and projected changes in climate and/or land use over the next century. Here we focus on total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) from nonpoint sources (runoff), as well as stream temperature. The projection of future land use is characterized by a combination of densification in existing urban or partially urban areas, and expansion of the urban footprint. The climate change scenarios consist of individual and concurrent changes in temperature and precipitation. Future precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer, while future temperature is projected to increase throughout the year. Our results show that urbanization has a much greater effect than climate change on both the magnitude and seasonal variability of streamflow, TSS and TP loads largely due to substantially increased streamflow, and particularly winter flow peaks. Water temperature is more sensitive to climate warming scenarios than to urbanization and precipitation changes. Future urbanization and climate change together are predicted to significantly increase annual mean streamflow (up to 55%), water temperature (up to 1.9 ºC), TSS load (up to 182%), and TP load (up to 74%).« less
  • The Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 degrees, with the meteorology nudged towards the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those of dropletmore » nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. The annual average AIF in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m⁻² (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m⁻² reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.« less
  • We report the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 is run at horizontal grid spacing of 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25°, with the meteorology nudged toward the Year Of Tropical Convection analysis, and cloud simulators and the collocated A-Train satellite observations are used to explore the resolution dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions. The higher-resolution model produces results that agree better with observations, showing an increase of susceptibility of cloud droplet size, indicating a stronger first aerosol indirect forcing (AIF), and a decrease of susceptibility of precipitation probability, suggesting a weaker second AIF. The resolution sensitivities of AIF are attributed to those ofmore » droplet nucleation and precipitation parameterizations. Finally, the annual average AIF in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (where most anthropogenic emissions occur) in the 0.25° model is reduced by about 1 W m -2 (-30%) compared to the 2° model, leading to a 0.26 W m -2 reduction (-15%) in the global annual average AIF.« less
  • Chemical aging of organic aerosol (OA) through multiphase oxidation reactions can alter their cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity and hygroscopicity. However, the oxidation kinetics and OA reactivity depend strongly on the particle phase state, potentially influencing the hydrophobic-to-hydrophilic conversion rate of carbonaceous aerosol. Here, amorphous Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA) aerosol particles, a surrogate humic-like substance (HULIS) that contributes substantially to global OA mass, are oxidized by OH radicals at different temperatures and phase states. When oxidized at low temperature in a glassy solid state, the hygroscopicity of SRFA particles increased by almost a factor of two, whereas oxidation ofmore » liquid-like SRFA particles at higher temperatures did not affect CCN activity. Low-temperature oxidation appears to promote the formation of highly-oxygenated particle-bound fragmentation products with lower molar mass and greater CCN activity, underscoring the importance of chemical aging in the free troposphere and its influence on the CCN activity of OA.« less