skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Indian?s Perspective.

Abstract

The security environment in South Asia has been marked by instability for several decades. The foremost causes of regional instability are the nuclear weapons-cum-missile development program of China, North Korea and Pakistan, the strident march of Islamist fundamentalism, the diabolical nexus between narcotics trafficking and terrorism, the proliferation of small arms and the instability inherent in the rule of despotic regimes. Instability on the Indian sub-continent is manifested, first and foremost, in the continuing conflict in Afghanistan, its tense relations with Iran and the Central Asian Republics (CARs); Pakistan’s struggle against the Taliban, the emerging fissiparous tendencies in Balochistan and Pakhtoonkhwa, the rise of Jihadi Islam and what some fear is Pakistan’s gradual slide towards becoming a ‘failed state’ despite some economic gains in the last five years. Also symptomatic of an unstable and uncertain security environment in the South Asian region are what some see as Sri Lanka’s inability to find a lasting solution to its internal challenges; the potential for Bangladesh’s gradual emergence as the new hub of Islamist fundamentalist terrorism and its struggle for economic upliftment to subsistence levels; the continuing negative impact of Maoist insurgency on Nepal’s fledgling democracy; the simmering discontent in Tibet and Xinjiangmore » and what some see as a low-key uprising against China’s regime; and, the Myanmar peoples’ nascent movement for democracy. In all these countries, socio-economic development has been slow and, consequently, per capita income is alarmingly low. Transborder narcotics trafficking – the golden triangle lies to the east of South Asia and the golden crescent to its west – and the proliferation of small arms, make a potent cocktail. Ethnic tensions and fairly widespread radicalization, worsened by the advent of the vicious ideology of the Islamic state, add further to regional instability.« less

Authors:
 [1]
  1. Inst. for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi (India)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1367405
Report Number(s):
SAND2017-4791
653077
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION

Citation Formats

Kanwal, Gurmeet. Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Indian?s Perspective.. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1367405.
Kanwal, Gurmeet. Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Indian?s Perspective.. United States. doi:10.2172/1367405.
Kanwal, Gurmeet. Mon . "Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Indian?s Perspective.". United States. doi:10.2172/1367405. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1367405.
@article{osti_1367405,
title = {Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Indian?s Perspective.},
author = {Kanwal, Gurmeet},
abstractNote = {The security environment in South Asia has been marked by instability for several decades. The foremost causes of regional instability are the nuclear weapons-cum-missile development program of China, North Korea and Pakistan, the strident march of Islamist fundamentalism, the diabolical nexus between narcotics trafficking and terrorism, the proliferation of small arms and the instability inherent in the rule of despotic regimes. Instability on the Indian sub-continent is manifested, first and foremost, in the continuing conflict in Afghanistan, its tense relations with Iran and the Central Asian Republics (CARs); Pakistan’s struggle against the Taliban, the emerging fissiparous tendencies in Balochistan and Pakhtoonkhwa, the rise of Jihadi Islam and what some fear is Pakistan’s gradual slide towards becoming a ‘failed state’ despite some economic gains in the last five years. Also symptomatic of an unstable and uncertain security environment in the South Asian region are what some see as Sri Lanka’s inability to find a lasting solution to its internal challenges; the potential for Bangladesh’s gradual emergence as the new hub of Islamist fundamentalist terrorism and its struggle for economic upliftment to subsistence levels; the continuing negative impact of Maoist insurgency on Nepal’s fledgling democracy; the simmering discontent in Tibet and Xinjiang and what some see as a low-key uprising against China’s regime; and, the Myanmar peoples’ nascent movement for democracy. In all these countries, socio-economic development has been slow and, consequently, per capita income is alarmingly low. Transborder narcotics trafficking – the golden triangle lies to the east of South Asia and the golden crescent to its west – and the proliferation of small arms, make a potent cocktail. Ethnic tensions and fairly widespread radicalization, worsened by the advent of the vicious ideology of the Islamic state, add further to regional instability.},
doi = {10.2172/1367405},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share:
  • According to international relations theory, deterrence can be used as a tool to achieve stability between potentially hostile nations. India and Pakistan's long history of periodic crises raises the question of how they can achieve deterrence stability. 'Transparency' describes the flow of information between parties and plays a key role in establishing a deterrence relationship. This paper studies the balance needed between opacity and transparency in nuclear topics for the maintenance of deterrence stability between India and Pakistan. States with nuclear weapons are postulated to implement transparency in four categories: potential, capability, intent, and resolve. The study applies these categoriesmore » to the nuclear components of the ongoing India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue Working Group for Peace and Security including CBMs. To focus our efforts, we defined four scenarios to characterize representative strategic/military/political conditions. The scenarios are combinations of these two sets of opposite poles: competition - cooperation; extremism - moderation (to be understood primarily in a religious/nationalistic sense). We describe each scenario in terms of select focal areas (nuclear doctrine, nuclear command and control, nuclear stockpile, nuclear delivery/defensive systems, and conventional force posture). The scenarios help frame the realm of possibilities, and have been described in terms of expected conditions for the focal areas. We then use the conditions in each scenario to prescribe a range of information-sharing actions that the two countries could take to increase stability. We also highlight the information that should not be shared. These actions can be political (e.g., declarations), procedural (e.g., advance notice of certain military activities), or technologically based (e.g., seismic monitoring of the nuclear test moratorium).« less
  • As an ongoing part of the collaborative efforts between the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories, the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), staff from the CMC served as faculty in conducting a workshop in Shanghai, China. Sponsor of the workshop was the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS) based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The workshop included participants from throughout South Asia and China. The CMC presented four sessions related to the role of monitoring technologies in promoting regional security and building confidence among nations. Participation in these workshops supportsmore » U.S. efforts to further regional cooperation and promote arms control, nonproliferation and other cooperative securily measures and supplements efforts funded by DOE and ACDA over the past four years. The RCSS Shanghai meeting permitted a continued CMC involvement in regionally conducted training for anew generation of leaders in government, the military, and academia throughout South Asia and China. Nuclear issues are clearly a dominant South Asian concern since the nuclear tests of May 1998. However, there remains a strong interest in identifying opportunities for increased trade and reduced tensions in other areas. The RCSS and other regional organizations are enthusiastic about continued CMC involvement in future regional courses.« less
  • Policymakers in both India and Pakistan have concluded that the potential capability to develop and deploy nuclear weapons serves their national security and political interests. International efforts to reverse these conclusions are unlikely to succeed, particularly if these initiatives center on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) regime. The present state of tension and the ambiguous balance of nuclear capabilities and ballistic missiles between India and Pakistan is not sustainable over the long-term because deterrence could break down in a crisis. Nuclear armed missiles could be deployed or even used, by one or both parties, perhaps for pre-emptive purposes. Even withoutmore » a crisis, escalating domestic and regional tensions may lead India and Pakistan into declared nuclear weapons programs. A nuclear arms race, analogous in nature (but not in magnitude) to that between the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, could follow. Traditional global arms control regimes cannot address the problem. A new security approach by the United States and other concerned governments is warranted one that freezes the weapons programs of these de facto nuclear powers at current levels by mutual agreement with international assurances. As the first step toward constructing a new regional approach to South Asian security this could avoid nuclear weapons escalation in the near term, and might eventually lead these two countries to agree to accede to international non-proliferation regimes.« less
  • Although the Cold War is over, the security environment in Northeast Asia is not stable. This study summarizes Korea`s national interests from a Korean soldier`s perspective. The threats and issues are described according to the format of a regional strategic appraisal. This study recommends the organization of a Conference on Security and Cooperation in Northeast Asia (CSCNEA). This organization would be composed of the two Koreas(or eventually a reunified Korea), the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. Before the establishment of the organization, the enlargement of bilateral cooperation is recommended.
  • The Scotts Valley Band of Pomo Indians is located in Lake County in Northern California. Similar to the other five federally recognized Indian Tribes in Lake County participating in this project, Scotts Valley Band of Pomo Indians members are challenged by generally increasing energy costs and undeveloped local energy resources. Currently, Tribal decision makers lack sufficient information to make informed decisions about potential renewable energy resources. To meet this challenge efficiently, the Tribes have committed to the Lake County Tribal Energy Program, a multi Tribal program to be based at the Robinson Rancheria and including The Elem Indian Colony, Bigmore » Valley Rancheria, Middletown Rancheria, Habematolel Pomo of Upper Lake and the Scotts Valley Pomo Tribe. The mission of this program is to promote Tribal energy efficiency and create employment opportunities and economic opportunities on Tribal Lands through energy resource and energy efficiency development. This program will establish a comprehensive energy strategic plan for the Tribes based on Tribal specific plans that capture economic and environmental benefits while continuing to respect Tribal cultural practices and traditions. The goal is to understand current and future energy consumption and develop both regional and Tribe specific strategic energy plans, including action plans, to clearly identify the energy options for each Tribe.« less