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Title: Historical Trends in PM 2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-related premature mortality (PM 2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM 2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM 2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM 2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlationsmore » between population and PM 2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH 3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NO x emission controls.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). State Key Joint Lab. of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment
  2. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  3. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). State Key Joint Lab. of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; USEPA
OSTI Identifier:
1366538
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0003782
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Health Perspectives
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0091-6765
Publisher:
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., and Hao, Jiming. Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1289/EHP298.
Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., & Hao, Jiming. Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere. United States. doi:10.1289/EHP298.
Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., and Hao, Jiming. Fri . "Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere". United States. doi:10.1289/EHP298. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1366538.
@article{osti_1366538,
title = {Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere},
author = {Wang, Jiandong and Xing, Jia and Mathur, Rohit and Pleim, Jonathan E. and Wang, Shuxiao and Hogrefe, Christian and Gan, Chuen-Meei and Wong, David C. and Hao, Jiming},
abstractNote = {Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO2, NOx, NH3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NOx emission controls.},
doi = {10.1289/EHP298},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
number = 3,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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