skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Historical Trends in PM 2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract

Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-related premature mortality (PM 2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM 2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM 2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM 2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM 2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlationsmore » between population and PM 2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH 3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NO x emission controls.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). State Key Joint Lab. of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment
  2. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)
  3. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). State Key Joint Lab. of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; USEPA
OSTI Identifier:
1366538
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0003782
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Health Perspectives
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0091-6765
Publisher:
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., and Hao, Jiming. Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1289/EHP298.
Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., & Hao, Jiming. Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere. United States. doi:10.1289/EHP298.
Wang, Jiandong, Xing, Jia, Mathur, Rohit, Pleim, Jonathan E., Wang, Shuxiao, Hogrefe, Christian, Gan, Chuen-Meei, Wong, David C., and Hao, Jiming. 2016. "Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere". United States. doi:10.1289/EHP298. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1366538.
@article{osti_1366538,
title = {Historical Trends in PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality during 1990$-$2010 across the Northern Hemisphere},
author = {Wang, Jiandong and Xing, Jia and Mathur, Rohit and Pleim, Jonathan E. and Wang, Shuxiao and Hogrefe, Christian and Gan, Chuen-Meei and Wong, David C. and Hao, Jiming},
abstractNote = {Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO2, NOx, NH3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits, i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions. However, reductions in emissions of NH3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NOx emission controls.},
doi = {10.1289/EHP298},
journal = {Environmental Health Perspectives},
number = 3,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = 2016,
month = 8
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 1work
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:
  • During the years 1974--1979 the CC1/sub 3/F concentration in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere increased by a factor of 2. The annual rates of increase were directly related to annual rates of emissions at the surface of the earth. The production data for fluorocarbons, published by the Chemical Manufacturers Association, show a decline in the yearly rate of emission of CC1/sub 3/F during the last decade. The yearly percent increase in the mean stratospheric concentration in the Northern Hemisphere has shown a similar decline. Data for CC1/sub 4/, CCq/sub 2/F/sub 2/ and SF/sub 6/ also show a slowing in the annualmore » rate of increase in the stratospheric mean concentration. The calculated globally averaged concentration of N/sub 2/O in the Northern Hemsphere remained constant at 249 +- 7 n1/1 during the years 1976--1979.« less
  • We use far-infrared (20-200 μm) data from the Composite Infrared Spectrometer on the Cassini spacecraft to determine the zonal-mean temperature and hydrogen para-fraction in Saturn's upper troposphere from observations taken before and after the large northern hemisphere storm in 2010-2011. During the storm, zonal mean temperatures in the latitude band between approximately 25°N and 45°N (planetographic latitude) increased by about 3 K, while the zonal mean hydrogen para-fraction decreased by about 0.04 over the same latitudes, at pressures greater than about 300 mbar. These changes occurred over the same latitude range as the disturbed cloud band seen in visible images.more » The observations are consistent with low para-fraction gas being brought up from the level of the water cloud by the strong convective plume associated with the storm, while being heated by condensation of water vapor, and then advected zonally by the winds near the plume tops in the upper troposphere.« less
  • The authors follow up on a strong case made by Trenberth for the importance of low-frequency tropical and extratropical circulation variations being a major factor in determining decade scale temperature variations observed in the northern hemisphere. They use the rotated principal components analysis to model mid-tropospheric circulation variations, because this scheme is able to deal with major low-frequency modes. Their objective is to show how dynamics in the atmosphere are able to drive surface temperature changes. The objective is to try to explain why observations do not support general model conclusions that the increasing abundance of greenhouse gases should resultmore » in increasing surface temperatures. The conclusions support the importance of such circulations in determining surface temperatures, point out the need to include such circulational effects in global circulation models, and highlight how complex it is to simply measure or observe global climate changes based upon only one parameter change.« less
  • The authors compare trends in column ozone measurements in mid latitudes measured from Nimbus-7 with predictions of 2D photochemical models. They find that the measurements show a larger trended decrease than is predicted by the 2D model. The data shows considerable variability at mid latitudes with longitudinal location.
  • Monthly mean time series of (1) surface air temperature anomalies averaged over the Northern Hemisphere based on data from land stations, (2) sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans, and (3) 1000-500-mb thickness anomalies averaged over the region poleward of 40{degrees}N are examined. The data are stratified in terms of warm (May - October) and cold (November - April) seasons. Time series (1) and (3) based on cold-season data exhibit much larger month to month variability and a richer spectrum of interannual variability than those based on warm-season data: the interdecadal to century scale variability stands outmore » more clearly in the warm-season time series. Cold- and warm-season time series for (1) differ substantially, even when heavily smoothed. It is hypothesized that the richer spectrum of variability in the cold-season time series is dynamically induced. To test this hypothesis, departures of cold-season data for (1) and (3) from their respective smoothed warm-season time series are regressed upon the hemispheric 1000-500-mb thickness field. Anomalously warm cold-season months are shown to be characterized by circulation regimes conductive to positive thickness anomalies over the high-latitude continents. A simple index of this distinctive {open_quotes}cold ocean - warm land{close_quotes} (COWL) pattern accounts for 65% of the variance of (1) during the cold-season months and for most of the discrepancies between its 5-yr running mean cold- and warm-season time series. The anomalous warmth of the winters of the 1980s is consistent with the strong positive bias of the COWL pattern index during the cold seasons of that decade. 35 refs., 13 figs.« less