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Title: Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations

Abstract

Here, we report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO 2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground-based observations of radiocarbon and total CO 2, together with column-mean CO 2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO 2 exchange, in radiocarbon-based fossil fuel CO 2 measurements, in OCO-2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO 2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO-2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly-mean fossil fuel emissions of ~5–10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom-up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO 2 exchange of ~6%–12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests thatmore » obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5 ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
  3. Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom)
  4. Jet Propulsion Lab., Pasadena, CA (United States)
  5. Univ. of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
  6. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  7. Arizona State Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States)
  8. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Univ. Space Research Assoc., Columbia, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Energy Analysis & Environmental Impacts; USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1364604
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1402389
Report Number(s):
LBNL-1007266
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X; ir:1007266
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 122; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; fossil fuel; biosphere; emissions; carbon dioxide; simulation; inversion

Citation Formats

Fischer, Marc L., Parazoo, Nicholas, Brophy, Kieran, Cui, Xinguang, Jeong, Seongeun, Liu, Junjie, Keeling, Ralph, Taylor, Thomas E., Gurney, Kevin, Oda, Tomohiro, and Graven, Heather. Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2016JD025617.
Fischer, Marc L., Parazoo, Nicholas, Brophy, Kieran, Cui, Xinguang, Jeong, Seongeun, Liu, Junjie, Keeling, Ralph, Taylor, Thomas E., Gurney, Kevin, Oda, Tomohiro, & Graven, Heather. Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations. United States. doi:10.1002/2016JD025617.
Fischer, Marc L., Parazoo, Nicholas, Brophy, Kieran, Cui, Xinguang, Jeong, Seongeun, Liu, Junjie, Keeling, Ralph, Taylor, Thomas E., Gurney, Kevin, Oda, Tomohiro, and Graven, Heather. Thu . "Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations". United States. doi:10.1002/2016JD025617. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1364604.
@article{osti_1364604,
title = {Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations},
author = {Fischer, Marc L. and Parazoo, Nicholas and Brophy, Kieran and Cui, Xinguang and Jeong, Seongeun and Liu, Junjie and Keeling, Ralph and Taylor, Thomas E. and Gurney, Kevin and Oda, Tomohiro and Graven, Heather},
abstractNote = {Here, we report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground-based observations of radiocarbon and total CO2, together with column-mean CO2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO2 exchange, in radiocarbon-based fossil fuel CO2 measurements, in OCO-2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO-2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly-mean fossil fuel emissions of ~5–10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom-up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO2 exchange of ~6%–12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests that obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5 ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling.},
doi = {10.1002/2016JD025617},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 6,
volume = 122,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 09 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Thu Mar 09 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

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