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Title: All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners

Abstract

In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oil import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crudemore » oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1364441
Report Number(s):
LBNL-1007121
ir:1007121
DOE Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Electric Vehicles; India

Citation Formats

Abhyankar, Nikit, Gopal, Anand R., Sheppard, Colin, Park, Won Young, and Phadke, Amol A. All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.2172/1364441.
Abhyankar, Nikit, Gopal, Anand R., Sheppard, Colin, Park, Won Young, & Phadke, Amol A. All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners. United States. doi:10.2172/1364441.
Abhyankar, Nikit, Gopal, Anand R., Sheppard, Colin, Park, Won Young, and Phadke, Amol A. 2017. "All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners". United States. doi:10.2172/1364441. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1364441.
@article{osti_1364441,
title = {All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners},
author = {Abhyankar, Nikit and Gopal, Anand R. and Sheppard, Colin and Park, Won Young and Phadke, Amol A.},
abstractNote = {In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oil import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crude oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?},
doi = {10.2172/1364441},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month = 6
}

Technical Report:

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  • The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Value Propositions Workshop held in Washington, D.C. in December 2007 served as the Task 1 Milestone for this study. Feedback from all five Workshop breakout sessions has been documented in a Workshop Summary Report, which can be found at www.sentech.org/phev. In this report, the project team compiled and presented a comprehensive list of potential value propositions that would later serve as a 'grab bag' of business model components in Task 2. After convening with the Guidance and Evaluation Committee and other PHEV stakeholders during the Workshop, several improvements to the technical approach were identifiedmore » and incorporated into the project plan to present a more realistic and accurate case study and evaluation. The assumptions and modifications that will have the greatest impact on the case study selection process in Task 2 are described in more detail in this deliverable. The objective of Task 2 is to identify the combination of value propositions that is believed to be achievable by 2030 and collectively hold promise for a sustainable PHEV market by 2030. This deliverable outlines what the project team (with input from the Committee) has defined as its primary scenario to be tested in depth for the remainder of Phase 1. Plans for the second and third highest priority/probability business scenarios are also described in this deliverable as proposed follow up case studies in Phase 2. As part of each case study description, the proposed utility system (or subsystem), PHEV market segment, and facilities/buildings are defined.« less
  • In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over themore » next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.« less
  • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) offer significant improvements in fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits, and decreased reliance on imported petroleum. However, the cost associated with new components (e.g., advanced batteries) to be introduced in these vehicles will likely result in a price premium to the consumer. This study aims to overcome this market barrier by identifying and evaluating value propositions that will increase the qualitative value and/or decrease the overall cost of ownership relative to the competing conventional vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) of 2030 During this initial phase of this study, business scenarios weremore » developed based on economic advantages that either increase the consumer value or reduce the consumer cost of PHEVs to assure a sustainable market that can thrive without the aid of state and Federal incentives or subsidies. Once the characteristics of a thriving PHEV market have been defined for this timeframe, market introduction steps, such as supportive policies, regulations and temporary incentives, needed to reach this level of sustainability will be determined. PHEVs have gained interest over the past decade for several reasons, including their high fuel economy, convenient low-cost recharging capabilities, potential environmental benefits and reduced use of imported petroleum, potentially contributing to President Bush's goal of a 20% reduction in gasoline use in ten years, or 'Twenty in Ten'. PHEVs and energy storage from advanced batteries have also been suggested as enabling technologies to improve the reliability and efficiency of the electric power grid. However, PHEVs will likely cost significantly more to purchase than conventional or other hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), in large part because of the cost of batteries. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs presents a major market barrier to their widespread commercialization. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate value-added propositions for PHEVs that will help overcome this market barrier. Candidate value propositions for the initial case study were chosen to enhance consumer acceptance of PHEVs and/or compatibility with the grid. Potential benefits of such grid-connected vehicles include the ability to supply peak load or emergency power requirements of the grid, enabling utilities to size their generation capacity and contingency resources at levels below peak. Different models for vehicle/battery ownership, leasing, financing and operation, as well as the grid, communications, and vehicle infrastructure needed to support the proposed value-added functions were explored during Phase 1. Rigorous power system, vehicle, financial and emissions modeling were utilized to help identify the most promising value propositions and market niches to focus PHEV deployment initiatives.« less
  • PHEVs have been the subject of growing interest in recent years because of their potential for reduced operating costs, oil displacement, national security, and environmental benefits. Despite the potential long-term savings to consumers and value to stakeholders, the initial cost of PHEVs presents a major market barrier to their widespread commercialization. The study Objectives are: (1) To identify and evaluate value-added propositions for PHEVs that will help overcome the initial price premium relative to comparable ICEs and HEVs and (2) to assess other non-monetary benefits and barriers associated with an emerging PHEV fleet, including environmental, societal, and grid impacts. Studymore » results indicate that a single PHEV-30 on the road in 2030 will: (1) Consume 65% and 75% less gasoline than a comparable HEV and ICE, respectively; (2) Displace 7.25 and 4.25 barrels of imported oil each year if substituted for equivalent ICEs and HEVs, respectively, assuming 60% of the nation's oil consumed is imported; (3) Reduce net ownership cost over 10 years by 8-10% relative to a comparable ICE and be highly cost competitive with a comparable HEV; (4) Use 18-22% less total W2W energy than a comparable ICE, but 8-13% more than a comparable HEV (assuming a 70/30 split of E10 and E85 use in 2030); and (5) Emit 10% less W2W CO{sub 2} than equivalent ICEs in southern California and emits 13% more W2W CO{sub 2} than equivalent ICEs in the ECAR region. This also assumes a 70/30 split of E10 and E85 use in 2030. PHEVs and other plug-in vehicles on the road in 2030 may offer many valuable benefits to utilities, business owners, individual consumers, and society as a whole by: (1) Promoting national energy security by displacing large volumes of imported oil; (2) Supporting a secure economy through the expansion of domestic vehicle and component manufacturing; (3) Offsetting the vehicle's initial price premium with lifetime operating cost savings (e.g., lower fuel and maintenance costs); (4) Supporting the use of off-peak renewable energy through smart charging practices. However, smart grid technology is not a prerequisite for realizing the benefits of PHEVs; and (5) Potentially using its bidirectional electricity flow capability to aid in emergency situations or to help better manage a building's or entire grid's load.« less
  • Tabulated data are presented for: (1) sales, revenues, and income for July 1977 and July 1978; (2) twelve month total sales, revenues, and income for tweve month periods ending July 1977 and July 1978; and (3) monthly sales of electric energy to ultimate consumers. (TFD)