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Title: Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1361966
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-124748
Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697; KP1601050
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment; Journal Volume: 592
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
Phosphorus transport; Stochastic model; Partition coefficient; Uncertainty; Three Gorges Reservoir

Citation Formats

Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, and Reible, Danny. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, & Reible, Danny. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient. United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, and Reible, Danny. Tue . "Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient". United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
@article{osti_1361966,
title = {Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient},
author = {Huang, Lei and Fang, Hongwei and Xu, Xingya and He, Guojian and Zhang, Xuesong and Reible, Danny},
abstractNote = {Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
number = ,
volume = 592,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}