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Title: Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

Abstract

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme stormmore » events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1361953
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-124119
Journal ID: ISSN 1084-0699; KP1703010
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering; Journal Volume: 22; Journal Issue: 8
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
precipitation; heavy storms; Nashville; atmospheric model; parameterizations

Citation Formats

Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, and Leung, L. Ruby. Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001523.
Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, & Leung, L. Ruby. Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events. United States. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001523.
Chen, Xiaodong, Hossain, Faisal, and Leung, L. Ruby. Tue . "Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events". United States. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001523.
@article{osti_1361953,
title = {Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events},
author = {Chen, Xiaodong and Hossain, Faisal and Leung, L. Ruby},
abstractNote = {In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.},
doi = {10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001523},
journal = {Journal of Hydrologic Engineering},
number = 8,
volume = 22,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}