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Title: Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [1];  [1]
  1. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
  2. Macquarie Univ., NSW (Australia). Dept. of Biological Sciences
  3. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). Climate Change Research Centre
  4. Met Office, Devon (United Kingdom)
  5. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). Climate Change Research Centre
  6. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere (O&A)

Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources. We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites. Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSMs simulated 58 Edrought days per year, on average, across the six sites, ~3 times as many as the observed 20 d. The simulated Edrought magnitude was ~8 times greater than observed and twice as intense. Our findings point to systematic biases across LSMs when simulating water and energy fluxes under water-stressed conditions. The overestimation of key Edrought characteristics undermines our confidence in the models' capability in simulating realistic drought responses to climate change and has wider implications for phenomena sensitive to soil moisture, including heat waves.

Research Organization:
Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); Australian Research Council (ARC)
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-04ER63917; FG02-04ER63911
OSTI ID:
1361497
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 10; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 62 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Evaluation of Regional‐Scale Soil Moisture‐Surface Flux Dynamics in Earth System Models Based on Satellite Observations of Land Surface Temperature journal May 2019
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction journal March 2020
Increased water-use efficiency and reduced CO2 uptake by plants during droughts at a continental scale journal August 2018
Nonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services journal April 2019
Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought journal January 2020
Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems journal July 2017
LDAS-Monde Sequential Assimilation of Satellite Derived Observations Applied to the Contiguous US: An ERA-5 Driven Reanalysis of the Land Surface Variables journal October 2018
Monitoring and Forecasting the Impact of the 2018 Summer Heatwave on Vegetation journal March 2019
How representative are FLUXNET measurements of surface fluxes during temperature extremes? journal January 2019
Evaluating the Met Office Unified Model land surface temperature in Global Atmosphere/Land 3.1 (GA/L3.1), Global Atmosphere/Land 6.1 (GA/L6.1) and limited area 2.2 km configurations journal January 2019
Using observed river flow data to improve the hydrological functioning of the JULES land surface model (vn4.3) used for regional coupled modelling in Great Britain (UKC2) journal January 2019
A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project journal January 2020
Monitoring and Forecasting the Impact of the 2018 Summer Heatwave on Vegetation journal January 2019
Using observed river flow data to improve the hydrological functioning of the JULES land surface model (vn4.3) used for regional coupled modelling in Great Britain (UKC2) journal August 2018