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Title: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Abstract

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, andmore » internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [1];  [8];  [1];  [9];  [10];  [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague (Netherlands); Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. for Sustainable Development
  3. German Aerospace Center (DLR), Oberfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics
  4. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  6. ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
  7. Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany)
  8. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  9. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Pacific Northwest National Lab Joint Global Change Research Inst.
  10. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1360743
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, and Sanderson, Benjamin M.. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, & Sanderson, Benjamin M.. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
O'Neill, Brian C., Tebaldi, Claudia, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Eyring, Veronika, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Hurtt, George, Knutti, Reto, Kriegler, Elmar, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Lowe, Jason, Meehl, Gerald A., Moss, Richard, Riahi, Keywan, and Sanderson, Benjamin M.. Wed . "The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6". United States. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1360743.
@article{osti_1360743,
title = {The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6},
author = {O'Neill, Brian C. and Tebaldi, Claudia and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Eyring, Veronika and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Hurtt, George and Knutti, Reto and Kriegler, Elmar and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Lowe, Jason and Meehl, Gerald A. and Moss, Richard and Riahi, Keywan and Sanderson, Benjamin M.},
abstractNote = {Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 9,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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