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Title: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Abstract

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25more » GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [3];  [4];  [7];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [1];  [8];  [3];  [5];  [2];  [1];  [9];  [10] more »;  [6];  [1];  [3];  [9];  [4];  [2];  [11];  [12];  [2];  [6];  [1];  [3];  [9];  [1];  [3];  [2];  [6];  [3];  [2];  [6];  [1];  [9];  [13];  [1];  [14];  [15] « less
  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
  2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven (The Netherlands)
  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  4. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  5. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  6. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  7. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France)
  8. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Shanghai Univ., Shanghai (China)
  9. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy)
  10. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  11. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy); Bocconi Univ. (Italy)
  12. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); KAIST College of Busines, Seoul (Republic of South Korea)
  13. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Humboldt-Univ. zu Berlin, Berlin (Germany)
  14. Wageningen Univ. and Research Centre (Netherlands)
  15. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Italy); Politecnico di Milano, (Italy)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1358497
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115333
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Environmental Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; SSP; climate change; RCP; community scenarios; mitigation; adaptation

Citation Formats

Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, & Tavoni, Massimo. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O'Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenoder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo. Sat . "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1358497.
@article{osti_1358497,
title = {The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview},
author = {Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O'Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and KC, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenoder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
abstractNote = {This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = C,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}

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