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Title: Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract

Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a feedback for climate change, but there is still strong disagreement on the extent to which biogeochemical processes may suppress this GPP growth at the ecosystem to continental scales. The consequent uncertainty in modeling of future carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere constitutes one of the largest unknowns in global climate projections for the next century. Here we provide a global, measurement-based estimate of historical GPP growth using long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that relates changes in the COS concentration to changes in its sources and sinks, the largest of which is proportional to GPP. The COS history was most consistent with simulations that assume a large historical GPP growth. Carbon-climate models that assume little to no GPP growth predicted trajectories of COS concentration over the anthropogenic era that differ from those observed. Continued COS monitoring may be useful for detecting ongoing changes in GPP while extending the ice core record to glacial cycles could provide further opportunities to evaluate earth system models.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1358471
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115736
Journal ID: ISSN 0028-0836; KP1703020
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Nature (London)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 544; Journal Issue: 7648; Journal ID: ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Campbell, J. E., Berry, J. A., Seibt, U., Smith, S. J., Montzka, S. A., Launois, T., Belviso, S., Bopp, L., and Laine, M. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1038/nature22030.
Campbell, J. E., Berry, J. A., Seibt, U., Smith, S. J., Montzka, S. A., Launois, T., Belviso, S., Bopp, L., & Laine, M. Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production. United States. doi:10.1038/nature22030.
Campbell, J. E., Berry, J. A., Seibt, U., Smith, S. J., Montzka, S. A., Launois, T., Belviso, S., Bopp, L., and Laine, M. Wed . "Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production". United States. doi:10.1038/nature22030.
@article{osti_1358471,
title = {Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production},
author = {Campbell, J. E. and Berry, J. A. and Seibt, U. and Smith, S. J. and Montzka, S. A. and Launois, T. and Belviso, S. and Bopp, L. and Laine, M.},
abstractNote = {Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a feedback for climate change, but there is still strong disagreement on the extent to which biogeochemical processes may suppress this GPP growth at the ecosystem to continental scales. The consequent uncertainty in modeling of future carbon storage by the terrestrial biosphere constitutes one of the largest unknowns in global climate projections for the next century. Here we provide a global, measurement-based estimate of historical GPP growth using long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. We interpret these records using a model that relates changes in the COS concentration to changes in its sources and sinks, the largest of which is proportional to GPP. The COS history was most consistent with simulations that assume a large historical GPP growth. Carbon-climate models that assume little to no GPP growth predicted trajectories of COS concentration over the anthropogenic era that differ from those observed. Continued COS monitoring may be useful for detecting ongoing changes in GPP while extending the ice core record to glacial cycles could provide further opportunities to evaluate earth system models.},
doi = {10.1038/nature22030},
journal = {Nature (London)},
issn = {0028-0836},
number = 7648,
volume = 544,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {4}
}

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