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Title: Historical and Projected Trends in Landscape Drivers Affecting Carbon Dynamics in Alaska

Journal Article · · Ecological Applications
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1538· OSTI ID:1356157
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]
  1. Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies, Inc., Sioux Falls, SD (United States). Contractor of U.S. Geological Survey; Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). Dept. of Forest Resources
  2. Neptune and Company, Inc., Lakewood, CO (United States)
  3. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology
  4. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). International Arctic Research Center. Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning
  5. U.S. Geological Survey, Sioux Falls, SD (United States). Earth Resources Observation and Science Center
  6. US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA (United States). Northern Research Station
  7. Alaska Ecoscience, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  8. ASRC Federal InuTeq, Sioux Falls, SD (United States). Contractor of U.S. Geological Survey
  9. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). U.S. Geological Survey. Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
  10. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  11. Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States). Dept. of Forest Resources
+ Show Author Affiliations

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socio-ecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. In this paper, we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 years, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7 °C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9–74% and 33–55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678,595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950–1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8–44%) and an increase in early-succession deciduous forest (25–113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223–620%), shrub tundra may increase (4–21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10–24%). Finally, this study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; United States Geological Survey (USGS); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); Dept. of the Interior (DOI) (United States)
Contributing Organization:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies, Inc., Sioux Falls, SD (United States); Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (United States); Neptune and Company, Inc., Lakewood, CO (United States); US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA (United States); Alaska Ecoscience, Fairbanks, AK (United States); ASRC Federal InuTeq, Sioux Falls, SD (United States)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396; G10AC00588; G08PC91508
OSTI ID:
1356157
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-23048
Journal Information:
Ecological Applications, Vol. 27, Issue 5; ISSN 1051-0761
Publisher:
Ecological Society of AmericaCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 30 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (6)

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2016
Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska journal May 2018
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2017
Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications journal July 2018
Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone journal January 2020
Soil Physical, Hydraulic, and Thermal Properties in Interior Alaska, USA: Implications for Hydrologic Response to Thawing Permafrost Conditions journal May 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earth Sciences
Alaska
boreal forest
climate change
carbon dynamics
permafrost