Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

Tan, I.; Storelvmo, T.; Zelinka, M. D.

doi:10.1126/science.aad5300

Title: Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

Journal Article · Thu Apr 07 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300· OSTI ID:1355851

Tan, I.; Storelvmo, T.; Zelinka, M. D.

Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here, in this paper, we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. Finally, we point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012580; AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1355851

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1409950

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-735511; 352/6282/224

Journal Information:: Science, Journal Name: Science Vol. 352 Journal Issue: 6282; ISSN 0036-8075

Publisher:: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 271 works

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Improved tropospheric and stratospheric sulfur cycle in the aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2 Feinberg, Aryeh; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Luo, Bei-Ping Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3863-2019	journal	January 2019
Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect Li, Jui-Lin Frank; Richardson, Mark; Lee, Wei-Liang The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-969-2019	journal	January 2019

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