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Title: Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

Abstract

Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start to become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climatemore » policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1355127
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-107638
Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Energy Policy; Journal Volume: 86; Journal Issue: C
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Africa; Integrated Assessment Modelling; energy; climate policy; energy access; energy trade

Citation Formats

Lucas, Paul, Nielsen, Jens, Calvin, Katherine V., McCollum, David, Marangoni, Giacomo, Strefler, Jessica, van der Zwaan, Bob, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.017.
Lucas, Paul, Nielsen, Jens, Calvin, Katherine V., McCollum, David, Marangoni, Giacomo, Strefler, Jessica, van der Zwaan, Bob, & Van Vuuren, Detlef. Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models. United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.017.
Lucas, Paul, Nielsen, Jens, Calvin, Katherine V., McCollum, David, Marangoni, Giacomo, Strefler, Jessica, van der Zwaan, Bob, and Van Vuuren, Detlef. Sun . "Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models". United States. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.017.
@article{osti_1355127,
title = {Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models},
author = {Lucas, Paul and Nielsen, Jens and Calvin, Katherine V. and McCollum, David and Marangoni, Giacomo and Strefler, Jessica and van der Zwaan, Bob and Van Vuuren, Detlef},
abstractNote = {Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start to become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climate policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.017},
journal = {Energy Policy},
number = C,
volume = 86,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Sun Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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