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Title: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960

Abstract

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21 W m -2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [4];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  2. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). Dept. of Meteorology
  3. National Oceanography Centre, Southampton UK
  4. NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1354912
Grant/Contract Number:
GA01101; NE/K005480/1
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; ocean uptake; net radiation

Citation Formats

Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., and Scaife, Adam A. Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2014gl062669.
Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., & Scaife, Adam A. Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960. United States. doi:10.1002/2014gl062669.
Smith, Doug M., Allan, Richard P., Coward, Andrew C., Eade, Rosie, Hyder, Patrick, Liu, Chunlei, Loeb, Norman G., Palmer, Matthew D., Roberts, Chris D., and Scaife, Adam A. Thu . "Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960". United States. doi:10.1002/2014gl062669. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1354912.
@article{osti_1354912,
title = {Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960},
author = {Smith, Doug M. and Allan, Richard P. and Coward, Andrew C. and Eade, Rosie and Hyder, Patrick and Liu, Chunlei and Loeb, Norman G. and Palmer, Matthew D. and Roberts, Chris D. and Scaife, Adam A.},
abstractNote = {Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.},
doi = {10.1002/2014gl062669},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2015},
month = {Thu Feb 19 00:00:00 EST 2015}
}

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Cited by: 33 works
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