Uncertainty quantification of calculated temperatures for advanced gas reactor fuel irradiation experiments
- Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
This paper presents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) fuel irradiation experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technology Research and Development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR tests, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The temperature simulation data for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. To quantify the uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures, this study identifies and analyzes ABAQUS model parameters of potential importance to the AGR predicted fuel temperatures. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification of the AGR calculated temperatures is based on the ranking of their influences on variation of temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with large uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of AGR calculated temperatures. Expert judgment is used as the basis to specify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperature and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the first-order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, time-dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration was obtained using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain. This allows computation of uncertainty for the predicted peak fuel temperatures and the predicted graphite temperatures at TC locations over the whole AGR irradiation period.
- Research Organization:
- Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC07-05ID14517
- OSTI ID:
- 1349194
- Report Number(s):
- INL/CON-15-34058
- Journal Information:
- Nuclear Technology, Vol. 196, Issue 2; Conference: 116. international topical meeting on nuclear reactor thermal hydraulics (NURETH-16), Chicago, IL (United States), 30 Aug - 4 Sep 2015; ISSN 0029-5450
- Publisher:
- Taylor & Francis - formerly American Nuclear Society (ANS)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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