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Title: Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient

Abstract

Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1349083
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-124748
Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697; PII: S0048969717304928
Grant/Contract Number:
AC0576Rl01830; 51139003; 11372161
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Science of the Total Environment
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 592; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Phosphorus transport; Stochastic model; Partition coefficient; Uncertainty; Three Gorges Reservoir

Citation Formats

Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, and Reible, Danny. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, & Reible, Danny. Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient. United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
Huang, Lei, Fang, Hongwei, Xu, Xingya, He, Guojian, Zhang, Xuesong, and Reible, Danny. 2017. "Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient". United States. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227.
@article{osti_1349083,
title = {Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient},
author = {Huang, Lei and Fang, Hongwei and Xu, Xingya and He, Guojian and Zhang, Xuesong and Reible, Danny},
abstractNote = {Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). Here, we formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. Furthermore, the correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. Our study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.227},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
number = C,
volume = 592,
place = {United States},
year = 2017,
month = 8
}

Journal Article:
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  • Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kd from the measured distributions, tomore » obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.« less
  • This article develops a novel multiscale modeling approach to analyze CO2 reservoirs using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s STOMP-CO2-R code that is interfaced with the ABAQUS® finite element package. The STOMP-CO2-R/ABAQUS® sequentially coupled simulator accounts for the reactive transport of CO2 causing mineral composition changes that modify the geomechanical properties of reservoir rocks and seals. Formation rocks’ elastic properties that vary during CO2 injection and govern the poroelastic behavior of rocks are modeled by an Eshelby-Mori-Tanka approach (EMTA) implemented in ABAQUS® via user-subroutines. The computational tool incorporates the change in rock permeability due to both geochemistry and geomechanics. A three-dimensional (3D)more » STOMP-CO2-R model for a model CO2 reservoir containing a vertical fault is built to analyze a formation containing a realistic geochemical reaction network with 5 minerals: albite, anorthite, calcite, kaolinite and quartz. A 3D ABAQUS® model that maps the above STOMP-CO2-R model is built for the analysis using STOMP-CO2-R/ABAQUS®. The results show that the changes in volume fraction of minerals include dissolution of anorthite, precipitation of calcite and kaolinite, with little change in the albite volume fraction. After a long period of CO2 injection the mineralogical and geomechanical changes significantly reduced the permeability and elastic modulus of the reservoir (between the base and caprock) in front of the fault leading to a reduction of the pressure margin to fracture at and beyond the injection location. The impact of reactive transport of CO2 on the geomechanical properties of reservoir rocks and seals are studied in terms of mineral composition changes that directly affect the rock stiffness, stress and strain distributions as well as the pressure margin to fracture.« less
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