Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K.; Kheshgi, Haroon S.

doi:10.1021/acs.est.6b04515

Title: Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

Journal Article · Mon Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Environmental Science and Technology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04515· OSTI ID:1349019

^[1]; Smith, Steven J. ^[2]; Kyle, Page ^[2]; Link, Robert ^[2]; Mignone, Bryan K. ^[3]; Kheshgi, Haroon S. ^[3]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.; National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO₂ emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21^st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1349019

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5400-67619

Journal Information:: Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 51, Issue 6; ISSN 0013-936X

Publisher:: American Chemical Society (ACS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 42 works

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Health and climate impacts of future United States land freight modelled with global-to-urban models Liu, Liang; Hwang, Taesung; Lee, Sungwon Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0224-3	journal	February 2019
The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals Zhang, Runsen; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanaoka, Tatsuya Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabb0d	journal	April 2018
Net-zero emissions energy systems Davis, Steven J.; Lewis, Nathan S.; Shaner, Matthew Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6396 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9793	journal	June 2018

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