Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.
Abstract
The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multiorganizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the outyear Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).
 Authors:
 Sandia National Lab. (SNLNM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
 Publication Date:
 Research Org.:
 Sandia National Lab. (SNLNM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sandia National Laboratories, Unknown, Unknown
 Sponsoring Org.:
 USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
 OSTI Identifier:
 1346333
 Report Number(s):
 SAND20172280
651341
 DOE Contract Number:
 AC0494AL85000
 Resource Type:
 Technical Report
 Country of Publication:
 United States
 Language:
 English
 Subject:
 45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
Citation Formats
Gearhart, Jared Lee, Samberson, Jonell Nicole, Shettigar, Subhasini, Jungels, John, Welch, Kimberly M., and Jones, Dean A. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.2172/1346333.
Gearhart, Jared Lee, Samberson, Jonell Nicole, Shettigar, Subhasini, Jungels, John, Welch, Kimberly M., & Jones, Dean A. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.. United States. doi:10.2172/1346333.
Gearhart, Jared Lee, Samberson, Jonell Nicole, Shettigar, Subhasini, Jungels, John, Welch, Kimberly M., and Jones, Dean A. Wed .
"Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.". United States.
doi:10.2172/1346333. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1346333.
@article{osti_1346333,
title = {Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.},
author = {Gearhart, Jared Lee and Samberson, Jonell Nicole and Shettigar, Subhasini and Jungels, John and Welch, Kimberly M. and Jones, Dean A.},
abstractNote = {The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multiorganizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the outyear Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).},
doi = {10.2172/1346333},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used tomore »

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