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Title: Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts

Abstract

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. Lastly, these results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4];  [5]; ORCiD logo [6]
  1. Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States); Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  4. New York State Dept. of Health, Slingerlands, NY (United States); SUNY, Albany, NY (United States)
  5. Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA (United States)
  6. Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1344995
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 284; Journal Issue: 1848; Journal ID: ISSN 0962-8452
Publisher:
The Royal Society Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; vector-borne disease; nonlinear temperature–disease relationship; Culex; disease ecology; global warming

Citation Formats

Paull, Sara H., Horton, Daniel E., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kramer, Laura D., Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Kilpatrick, A. Marm. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.2078.
Paull, Sara H., Horton, Daniel E., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kramer, Laura D., Diffenbaugh, Noah S., & Kilpatrick, A. Marm. Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. United States. doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.2078.
Paull, Sara H., Horton, Daniel E., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kramer, Laura D., Diffenbaugh, Noah S., and Kilpatrick, A. Marm. Wed . "Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts". United States. doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.2078. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1344995.
@article{osti_1344995,
title = {Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts},
author = {Paull, Sara H. and Horton, Daniel E. and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Rastogi, Deeksha and Kramer, Laura D. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Kilpatrick, A. Marm},
abstractNote = {The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. Lastly, these results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2016.2078},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
number = 1848,
volume = 284,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

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Cited by: 1 work
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