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Title: The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality

Abstract

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), “Inequality” or “A Road Divided,” is one of the five SSPs developed to guide the creation of new scenarios for the “Parallel Process”. We describe, in quantitative terms, the SSP4 as implemented by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the marker model for this scenario. We use demographic and economic assumptions, in combination with technology and non-climate policy assumptions to develop a quantitative representation of energy, land-use and land-cover that are consistent with the SSP4 storyline. The resulting scenario is one with stark differences across regions. High-income regions prosper, continuing to increase their demand for energy and food. Electrification increases in these regions, with the increased generation being met by nuclear and renewables. Low-income regions, however, stagnate due to limited growth in income. These regions continue to depend on traditional biofuels, leading to high pollutant emissions. Due to a declining dependence on fossil fuels in all regions, total radiative forcing only reaches 6.4 Wm-2 in 2100, making this a world with relatively low challenges to mitigation. We explore the effects of mitigation effort on the SSP4 world, finding that the imposition of a carbon price has a varied effect across regions. In particular, themore » SSP4 mitigation scenarios are characterized by afforestation in the high-income regions and deforestation in the low-income regions. Finally, we compare the GCAM SSP4 results to other integrated assessment model (IAM) quantifications of the SSP4 and to other SSPs, both those generated by GCAM and those of the other IAMs.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1344624
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-115202
Journal ID: ISSN 0959-3780; KP1703030
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Global Environmental Change; Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: C
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Calvin, Katherine, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Clarke, Leon, Edmonds, James, Eom, Jiyong, Hartin, Corinne, Kim, Sonny, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Moss, Richard, McJeon, Haewon, Patel, Pralit, Smith, Steve, Waldhoff, Stephanie, and Wise, Marshall. The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010.
Calvin, Katherine, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Clarke, Leon, Edmonds, James, Eom, Jiyong, Hartin, Corinne, Kim, Sonny, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Moss, Richard, McJeon, Haewon, Patel, Pralit, Smith, Steve, Waldhoff, Stephanie, & Wise, Marshall. The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality. United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010.
Calvin, Katherine, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Clarke, Leon, Edmonds, James, Eom, Jiyong, Hartin, Corinne, Kim, Sonny, Kyle, Page, Link, Robert, Moss, Richard, McJeon, Haewon, Patel, Pralit, Smith, Steve, Waldhoff, Stephanie, and Wise, Marshall. Sun . "The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality". United States. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010.
@article{osti_1344624,
title = {The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality},
author = {Calvin, Katherine and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Clarke, Leon and Edmonds, James and Eom, Jiyong and Hartin, Corinne and Kim, Sonny and Kyle, Page and Link, Robert and Moss, Richard and McJeon, Haewon and Patel, Pralit and Smith, Steve and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Wise, Marshall},
abstractNote = {The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4), “Inequality” or “A Road Divided,” is one of the five SSPs developed to guide the creation of new scenarios for the “Parallel Process”. We describe, in quantitative terms, the SSP4 as implemented by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), the marker model for this scenario. We use demographic and economic assumptions, in combination with technology and non-climate policy assumptions to develop a quantitative representation of energy, land-use and land-cover that are consistent with the SSP4 storyline. The resulting scenario is one with stark differences across regions. High-income regions prosper, continuing to increase their demand for energy and food. Electrification increases in these regions, with the increased generation being met by nuclear and renewables. Low-income regions, however, stagnate due to limited growth in income. These regions continue to depend on traditional biofuels, leading to high pollutant emissions. Due to a declining dependence on fossil fuels in all regions, total radiative forcing only reaches 6.4 Wm-2 in 2100, making this a world with relatively low challenges to mitigation. We explore the effects of mitigation effort on the SSP4 world, finding that the imposition of a carbon price has a varied effect across regions. In particular, the SSP4 mitigation scenarios are characterized by afforestation in the high-income regions and deforestation in the low-income regions. Finally, we compare the GCAM SSP4 results to other integrated assessment model (IAM) quantifications of the SSP4 and to other SSPs, both those generated by GCAM and those of the other IAMs.},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.010},
journal = {Global Environmental Change},
number = C,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Sun Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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