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Title: An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract

Here, we propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which aremore » not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. Lastly, an extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [2];  [8];  [8];  [9];  [1];  [10];  [10];  [10];  [9];  [4]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States)
  3. The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)
  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  5. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Science, Systems, and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States)
  6. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
  7. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States); Sigma Space Corp., Lanham, MD (United States)
  8. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  9. Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands)
  10. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1340442
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1345150
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-16-22797
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-959X; KP1703020; ERKP814
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; AC52-06NA25396; NNX11AR47G; ANT-0424589; AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geoscientific Model Development
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-959X
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; ice sheet models; validation; Greenland ice sheet; Computer Science; Earth Sciences

Citation Formats

Price, Stephen F., Hoffman, Matthew J., Bonin, Jennifer A., Howat, Ian M., Neumann, Thomas, Saba, Jack, Tezaur, Irina, Guerber, Jeffrey, Chambers, Don P., Evans, Katherine J., Kennedy, Joseph H., Lenaerts, Jan, Lipscomb, William H., Perego, Mauro, Salinger, Andrew G., Tuminaro, Raymond S., van den Broeke, Michiel R., and Nowicki, Sophie M. J. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017.
Price, Stephen F., Hoffman, Matthew J., Bonin, Jennifer A., Howat, Ian M., Neumann, Thomas, Saba, Jack, Tezaur, Irina, Guerber, Jeffrey, Chambers, Don P., Evans, Katherine J., Kennedy, Joseph H., Lenaerts, Jan, Lipscomb, William H., Perego, Mauro, Salinger, Andrew G., Tuminaro, Raymond S., van den Broeke, Michiel R., & Nowicki, Sophie M. J. An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017
Price, Stephen F., Hoffman, Matthew J., Bonin, Jennifer A., Howat, Ian M., Neumann, Thomas, Saba, Jack, Tezaur, Irina, Guerber, Jeffrey, Chambers, Don P., Evans, Katherine J., Kennedy, Joseph H., Lenaerts, Jan, Lipscomb, William H., Perego, Mauro, Salinger, Andrew G., Tuminaro, Raymond S., van den Broeke, Michiel R., and Nowicki, Sophie M. J. 2017. "An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1340442.
@article{osti_1340442,
title = {An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet},
author = {Price, Stephen F. and Hoffman, Matthew J. and Bonin, Jennifer A. and Howat, Ian M. and Neumann, Thomas and Saba, Jack and Tezaur, Irina and Guerber, Jeffrey and Chambers, Don P. and Evans, Katherine J. and Kennedy, Joseph H. and Lenaerts, Jan and Lipscomb, William H. and Perego, Mauro and Salinger, Andrew G. and Tuminaro, Raymond S. and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and Nowicki, Sophie M. J.},
abstractNote = {Here, we propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. Lastly, an extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-255-2017},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1340442}, journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
issn = {1991-959X},
number = ,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Tue Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003–2012)
journal, January 2016


Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states
journal, January 2013


Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured
journal, February 2016


Evaluation of Release-05 GRACE time-variable gravity coefficients over the ocean
journal, January 2012


Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics
journal, December 2014


Consistent approximations and boundary conditions for ice-sheet dynamics from a principle of least action
journal, January 2010


Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago
journal, April 2011


The Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) land classification and surface elevation data sets
journal, January 2014


Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise
journal, February 2012


Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier
journal, December 2004


Greenland flow variability from ice-sheet-wide velocity mapping
journal, January 2010


Spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet since AD 1900
journal, December 2015


Elevation change of the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface mass balance and firn processes, 1960–2014
journal, January 2015


21st-Century Evolution of Greenland Outlet Glacier Velocities
journal, May 2012


Deeply incised submarine glacial valleys beneath the Greenland ice sheet
journal, May 2014


Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II: Greenland: SEARISE GREENLAND
journal, June 2013


Optimal initial conditions for coupling ice sheet models to Earth system models: PEREGO ET AL.
journal, September 2014


Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade
journal, May 2011


Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
journal, September 2009


Timing and origin of recent regional ice-mass loss in Greenland
journal, June 2012


Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise
journal, August 2013


A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
journal, November 2012


North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers
journal, December 2013


Challenges to Understanding the Dynamic Response of Greenland's Marine Terminating Glaciers to Oceanic and Atmospheric Forcing
journal, August 2013


Contemporary (1960–2012) Evolution of the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
journal, November 2013


Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss
journal, November 2009


Limits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability
journal, July 2013


Analysis of self-describing gridded geoscience data with netCDF Operators (NCO)
journal, October 2008


ICESat's laser measurements of polar ice, atmosphere, ocean, and land
journal, October 2002


An improved mass budget for the Greenland ice sheet
journal, February 2014


Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II: Greenland: SEARISE GREENLAND
journal, June 2013


Time variability of the Earth's gravity field: Hydrological and oceanic effects and their possible detection using GRACE
journal, December 1998


Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier
journal, December 2004


Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise
journal, February 2012


North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers
journal, December 2013


Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise
journal, August 2013


Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics
journal, December 2014


Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss
journal, November 2009


21st-Century Evolution of Greenland Outlet Glacier Velocities
journal, May 2012


Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
journal, January 2013


Hindcasting to measure ice sheet model sensitivity to initial states
journal, January 2012


Works referencing / citing this record:

A Study on the Performance Portability of the Finite Element Assembly Process Within the Albany Land Ice Solver
book, February 2020


Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise
journal, July 2018


Response of Surface Topography to Basal Variability Along Glacial Flowlines
journal, October 2018


Contrasting Hydrological Controls on Bed Properties During the Acceleration of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
journal, January 2019


An Overview of Interactions and Feedbacks Between Ice Sheets and the Earth System
journal, June 2018


The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era
journal, June 2018


LIVVkit 2.1: automated and extensible ice sheet model validation
journal, January 2019


Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison
journal, January 2018


Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves
journal, January 2018


Contrasting hydrological controls on bed properties during the acceleration of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
text, January 2019


The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era
text, January 2018


Recent Progress in Greenland Ice Sheet Modelling
journal, November 2017


Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise
journal, July 2018


Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison
journal, January 2018