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Title: Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1339048
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-114275
TE1103000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM 2016), July 17-21, 2016, Boston, MA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
load forecast; principal component analysis; sequential Gaussian simulation

Citation Formats

Sun, Yannan, Hou, Zhangshuan, Meng, Da, Samaan, Nader A., Makarov, Yuri V., and Huang, Zhenyu. Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741272.
Sun, Yannan, Hou, Zhangshuan, Meng, Da, Samaan, Nader A., Makarov, Yuri V., & Huang, Zhenyu. Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting. United States. doi:10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741272.
Sun, Yannan, Hou, Zhangshuan, Meng, Da, Samaan, Nader A., Makarov, Yuri V., and Huang, Zhenyu. Sun . "Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting". United States. doi:10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741272.
@article{osti_1339048,
title = {Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting},
author = {Sun, Yannan and Hou, Zhangshuan and Meng, Da and Samaan, Nader A. and Makarov, Yuri V. and Huang, Zhenyu},
abstractNote = {In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.},
doi = {10.1109/PESGM.2016.7741272},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jul 17 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Sun Jul 17 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

Conference:
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