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Title: Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Abstract

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratosphericmore » recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.« less

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; USEPA; National Science Foundation (NSF); U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
OSTI Identifier:
1338197
DOE Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Environment (1994)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 139; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1352-2310
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Aerosol direct effect; Aerosol indirect effects; Future air quality; GU_WRF/Chem; Global climate and emissions change; Online-coupled model

Citation Formats

Glotfelty, Timothy, Zhang, Yang, Karamchandani, Prakash, and Streets, David G. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.008.
Glotfelty, Timothy, Zhang, Yang, Karamchandani, Prakash, & Streets, David G. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios. United States. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.008.
Glotfelty, Timothy, Zhang, Yang, Karamchandani, Prakash, and Streets, David G. Mon . "Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios". United States. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.008.
@article{osti_1338197,
title = {Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios},
author = {Glotfelty, Timothy and Zhang, Yang and Karamchandani, Prakash and Streets, David G.},
abstractNote = {The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.},
doi = {10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.008},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment (1994)},
issn = {1352-2310},
number = C,
volume = 139,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {8}
}