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Title: The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales

Abstract

The value of improving wind power forecasting accuracy at different electricity market operation timescales was analyzed by simulating the IEEE 118-bus test system as modified to emulate the generation mixes of the Midcontinent, California, and New England independent system operator balancing authority areas. The wind power forecasting improvement methodology and error analysis for the data set were elaborated. Production cost simulation was conducted on the three emulated systems with a total of 480 scenarios, considering the impacts of different generation technologies, wind penetration levels, and wind power forecasting improvement timescales. The static operational flexibility of the three systems was compared through the diversity of generation mix, the percentage of must-run baseload generators, as well as the available ramp rate and the minimum generation levels. The dynamic operational flexibility was evaluated by the real-time upward and downward ramp capacity. Simulation results show that the generation resource mix plays a crucial role in evaluating the value of improved wind power forecasting at different timescales. In addition, the changes in annual operational electricity generation costs were mostly influenced by the dominant resource in the system. Lastly, the impacts of pumped-storage resources, generation ramp rates, and system minimum generation level requirements on the valuemore » of improved wind power forecasting were also analyzed.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
OSTI Identifier:
1336896
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1414629
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5D00-67360
Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308; AC36-08-GO28308
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 184; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; wind power integration; wind power forecasting; grid flexibility; ramp capability; operation timescales; storage

Citation Formats

Wang, Qin, Wu, Hongyu, Florita, Anthony R., Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo, and Hodge, Bri-Mathias. The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.016.
Wang, Qin, Wu, Hongyu, Florita, Anthony R., Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo, & Hodge, Bri-Mathias. The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales. United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.016.
Wang, Qin, Wu, Hongyu, Florita, Anthony R., Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo, and Hodge, Bri-Mathias. Fri . "The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales". United States. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.016. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1336896.
@article{osti_1336896,
title = {The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales},
author = {Wang, Qin and Wu, Hongyu and Florita, Anthony R. and Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo and Hodge, Bri-Mathias},
abstractNote = {The value of improving wind power forecasting accuracy at different electricity market operation timescales was analyzed by simulating the IEEE 118-bus test system as modified to emulate the generation mixes of the Midcontinent, California, and New England independent system operator balancing authority areas. The wind power forecasting improvement methodology and error analysis for the data set were elaborated. Production cost simulation was conducted on the three emulated systems with a total of 480 scenarios, considering the impacts of different generation technologies, wind penetration levels, and wind power forecasting improvement timescales. The static operational flexibility of the three systems was compared through the diversity of generation mix, the percentage of must-run baseload generators, as well as the available ramp rate and the minimum generation levels. The dynamic operational flexibility was evaluated by the real-time upward and downward ramp capacity. Simulation results show that the generation resource mix plays a crucial role in evaluating the value of improved wind power forecasting at different timescales. In addition, the changes in annual operational electricity generation costs were mostly influenced by the dominant resource in the system. Lastly, the impacts of pumped-storage resources, generation ramp rates, and system minimum generation level requirements on the value of improved wind power forecasting were also analyzed.},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.11.016},
journal = {Applied Energy},
issn = {0306-2619},
number = C,
volume = 184,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {11}
}

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