skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis

Abstract

Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1334867
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-120091
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: IEEE Symposium on Technologies for Homeland Security (HST 2016), May 10-11, 2016, Waltham, MA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
game theory; cyber security

Citation Formats

Chatterjee, Samrat, Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, Oster, Matthew R., and Halappanavar, Mahantesh. Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1109/THS.2016.7568967.
Chatterjee, Samrat, Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, Oster, Matthew R., & Halappanavar, Mahantesh. Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis. United States. doi:10.1109/THS.2016.7568967.
Chatterjee, Samrat, Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, Oster, Matthew R., and Halappanavar, Mahantesh. Fri . "Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis". United States. doi:10.1109/THS.2016.7568967.
@article{osti_1334867,
title = {Propagating Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs: Exploration of Two-Phase Monte Carlo Sampling and Probability Bounds Analysis},
author = {Chatterjee, Samrat and Tipireddy, Ramakrishna and Oster, Matthew R. and Halappanavar, Mahantesh},
abstractNote = {Securing cyber-systems on a continual basis against a multitude of adverse events is a challenging undertaking. Game-theoretic approaches, that model actions of strategic decision-makers, are increasingly being applied to address cybersecurity resource allocation challenges. Such game-based models account for multiple player actions and represent cyber attacker payoffs mostly as point utility estimates. Since a cyber-attacker’s payoff generation mechanism is largely unknown, appropriate representation and propagation of uncertainty is a critical task. In this paper we expand on prior work and focus on operationalizing the probabilistic uncertainty quantification framework, for a notional cyber system, through: 1) representation of uncertain attacker and system-related modeling variables as probability distributions and mathematical intervals, and 2) exploration of uncertainty propagation techniques including two-phase Monte Carlo sampling and probability bounds analysis.},
doi = {10.1109/THS.2016.7568967},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 16 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Fri Sep 16 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

Conference:
Other availability
Please see Document Availability for additional information on obtaining the full-text document. Library patrons may search WorldCat to identify libraries that hold this conference proceeding.

Save / Share: