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Title: Parameter Uncertainty for Repository Thermal Analysis

Abstract

This report is one follow-on to a study of reference geologic disposal design concepts (Hardin et al. 2011a). Based on an analysis of maximum temperatures, that study concluded that certain disposal concepts would require extended decay storage prior to emplacement, or the use of small waste packages, or both. The study used nominal values for thermal properties of host geologic media and engineered materials, demonstrating the need for uncertainty analysis to support the conclusions. This report is a first step that identifies the input parameters of the maximum temperature calculation, surveys published data on measured values, uses an analytical approach to determine which parameters are most important, and performs an example sensitivity analysis. Using results from this first step, temperature calculations planned for FY12 can focus on only the important parameters, and can use the uncertainty ranges reported here. The survey of published information on thermal properties of geologic media and engineered materials, is intended to be sufficient for use in generic calculations to evaluate the feasibility of reference disposal concepts. A full compendium of literature data is beyond the scope of this report. The term “uncertainty” is used here to represent both measurement uncertainty and spatial variability, or variabilitymore » across host geologic units. For the most important parameters (e.g., buffer thermal conductivity) the extent of literature data surveyed samples these different forms of uncertainty and variability. Finally, this report is intended to be one chapter or section of a larger FY12 deliverable summarizing all the work on design concepts and thermal load management for geologic disposal (M3FT-12SN0804032, due 15Aug2012).« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  3. Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Fuel Cycle Technologies (NE-5)
OSTI Identifier:
1331495
Report Number(s):
SAND2015-8714R
615261
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES

Citation Formats

Hardin, Ernest, Hadgu, Teklu, Greenberg, Harris, and Dupont, Mark. Parameter Uncertainty for Repository Thermal Analysis. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.2172/1331495.
Hardin, Ernest, Hadgu, Teklu, Greenberg, Harris, & Dupont, Mark. Parameter Uncertainty for Repository Thermal Analysis. United States. doi:10.2172/1331495.
Hardin, Ernest, Hadgu, Teklu, Greenberg, Harris, and Dupont, Mark. Thu . "Parameter Uncertainty for Repository Thermal Analysis". United States. doi:10.2172/1331495. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1331495.
@article{osti_1331495,
title = {Parameter Uncertainty for Repository Thermal Analysis},
author = {Hardin, Ernest and Hadgu, Teklu and Greenberg, Harris and Dupont, Mark},
abstractNote = {This report is one follow-on to a study of reference geologic disposal design concepts (Hardin et al. 2011a). Based on an analysis of maximum temperatures, that study concluded that certain disposal concepts would require extended decay storage prior to emplacement, or the use of small waste packages, or both. The study used nominal values for thermal properties of host geologic media and engineered materials, demonstrating the need for uncertainty analysis to support the conclusions. This report is a first step that identifies the input parameters of the maximum temperature calculation, surveys published data on measured values, uses an analytical approach to determine which parameters are most important, and performs an example sensitivity analysis. Using results from this first step, temperature calculations planned for FY12 can focus on only the important parameters, and can use the uncertainty ranges reported here. The survey of published information on thermal properties of geologic media and engineered materials, is intended to be sufficient for use in generic calculations to evaluate the feasibility of reference disposal concepts. A full compendium of literature data is beyond the scope of this report. The term “uncertainty” is used here to represent both measurement uncertainty and spatial variability, or variability across host geologic units. For the most important parameters (e.g., buffer thermal conductivity) the extent of literature data surveyed samples these different forms of uncertainty and variability. Finally, this report is intended to be one chapter or section of a larger FY12 deliverable summarizing all the work on design concepts and thermal load management for geologic disposal (M3FT-12SN0804032, due 15Aug2012).},
doi = {10.2172/1331495},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {10}
}

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