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Title: Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century

Abstract

The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from reservoirs for flood control, also potentially decreasing water availability. As a result, lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with climate change projections and population increases may leave the areamore » in extended periods of shortages.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. Loyola Marymount Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Loyola Marymount Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1325599
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1325600; OSTI ID: 1326510
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; 32112413
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Pagán, Brianna R., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kendall, Donald R., Kao, Shih -Chieh, Naz, Bibi S., Mei, Rui, and Pal, Jeremy S. Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026.
Pagán, Brianna R., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kendall, Donald R., Kao, Shih -Chieh, Naz, Bibi S., Mei, Rui, & Pal, Jeremy S. Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026.
Pagán, Brianna R., Ashfaq, Moetasim, Rastogi, Deeksha, Kendall, Donald R., Kao, Shih -Chieh, Naz, Bibi S., Mei, Rui, and Pal, Jeremy S. Wed . "Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026.
@article{osti_1325599,
title = {Extreme hydrological changes in the southwestern US drive reductions in water supply to Southern California by mid century},
author = {Pagán, Brianna R. and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Rastogi, Deeksha and Kendall, Donald R. and Kao, Shih -Chieh and Naz, Bibi S. and Mei, Rui and Pal, Jeremy S.},
abstractNote = {The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. The State of California, which is the most populous and agriculturally productive in the United States, depends on an extensive artificial water storage and conveyance system primarily for irrigated agriculture, municipal and industrial supply and hydropower generation. Here we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all imported and local sources of water supply to Southern California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift in precipitation type towards more rainfall, reducing cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in both dry and flood event frequency and intensity. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from reservoirs for flood control, also potentially decreasing water availability. As a result, lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with climate change projections and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record at 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094026

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4works
Citation information provided by
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