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Title: Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

Abstract

This paper compares projections over the 21st century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model. Differences in model responses can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1314414
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-97434
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; 400408000
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Climatic Change; Journal Volume: 138; Journal Issue: 1-2
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Smith, Steven J., Rao, Shilpa, Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Calvin, Katherine V., and Kyle, Page. Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y.
Smith, Steven J., Rao, Shilpa, Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Calvin, Katherine V., & Kyle, Page. Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y.
Smith, Steven J., Rao, Shilpa, Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Calvin, Katherine V., and Kyle, Page. Tue . "Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y.
@article{osti_1314414,
title = {Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison},
author = {Smith, Steven J. and Rao, Shilpa and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Calvin, Katherine V. and Kyle, Page},
abstractNote = {This paper compares projections over the 21st century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model. Differences in model responses can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1733-y},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 1-2,
volume = 138,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Tue Aug 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}