Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Potential benefits and secondary impacts

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Heath, Garvin; Keyser, David; Lantz, Eric; Macknick, Jordan; Mai, Trieu; Millstein, Dev

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.123

Title: Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Potential benefits and secondary impacts

Journal Article · Tue Jul 05 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.123· OSTI ID:1287446

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Heath, Garvin; Keyser, David; Lantz, Eric; Macknick, Jordan; Mai, Trieu; Millstein, Dev

We model scenarios of the U.S. electric sector in which wind generation reaches 10% of end-use electricity demand in 2020, 20% in 2030, and 35% in 2050. As shown in a companion paper, achieving these penetration levels would have significant implications for the wind industry and the broader electric sector. Compared to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, under the primary scenario modeled, achieving these penetrations imposes an incremental cost to electricity consumers of less than 1% through 2030. These cost implications, however, should be balanced against the variety of environmental and social implications of such a scenario. Relative to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, our analysis shows that the high-penetration wind scenario yields potential greenhouse-gas benefits of $85-$1,230 billion in present-value terms, with a central estimate of $400 billion. Air-pollution-related health benefits are estimated at $52-$272 billion, while annual electric-sector water withdrawals and consumption are lower by 15% and 23% in 2050, respectively. We also find that a high-wind-energy future would have implications for the diversity and risk of energy supply, local economic development, and land use and related local impacts on communities and ecosystems; however, these additional impacts may not greatly affect aggregate social welfare owing to their nature, in part, as resource transfers.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Water Power Technologies Office; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office

DOE Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1287446

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-6A20-64321

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Vol. 179, Issue C; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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