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Title: Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options

Abstract

Higher-octane gasoline can enable increases in an internal combustion engine’s energy efficiency and a vehicle’s fuel economy by allowing an increase in the engine compression ratio and/or by enabling downspeeding and downsizing. Producing high-octane fuel (HOF) with the current level of ethanol blending (E10) could increase the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of the fuel product from refinery operations. Alternatively, increasing the ethanol blending level in final gasoline products could be a promising solution to HOF production because of the high octane rating and potentially low blended Reid vapor pressure (RVP) of ethanol at 25% and higher of the ethanol blending level by volume. In our previous HOF well-to-wheels (WTW) report (the so-called phase I report of the HOF WTW analysis), we conducted WTW analysis of HOF with different ethanol blending levels (i.e., E10, E25, and E40) and a range of vehicle efficiency gains with detailed petroleum refinery linear programming (LP) modeling by Jacobs Consultancy and showed that the overall WTW GHG emission changes associated with HOFVs were dominated by the positive impact associated with vehicle efficiency gains and ethanol blending levels, while the refining operations to produce gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB) for various HOF blendmore » levels had a much smaller impact on WTW GHG emissions (Han et al. 2015). The scope of the previous phase I study, however, was limited to evaluating PADDs 2 and 3 operation changes with various HOF market share scenarios and ethanol blending levels. Also, the study used three typical configuration models of refineries (cracking, light coking, and heavy coking) in each PADD, which may not be representative of the aggregate response of all refineries in each PADD to various ethanol blending levels and HOF market scenarios. Lastly, the phase I study assumed no new refinery expansion in the existing refineries, which limited E10 HOF production to the volume achievable by the cracking refinery configuration. To be able to satisfy large market demands of E10 HOF, that study arbitrarily relaxed the RVP requirements by replacing reformulated gasoline (RFG) RVP requirement of 7 psi in summer with conventional gasoline (CG) RVP requirement of 9 psi in summer. To examine the response by all refineries in major refinery regions, this phase II of the HOF WTW analysis employed regionally aggregated refinery models for the following six regions: PADDs 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 excluding California (CA) and CA separately. Using aggregate refinery models, this phase II study examined the impacts of ethanol blending and HOF market shares on the refinery operations in these six regions. Also, this study included refinery expansion to produce a pre-determined HOF volume with 10% ethanol blending. In particular, this study examined several refinery expansion options using refinery configuration models to investigate a practical refinery response to the increase in E10 HOF market demand.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Energy Systems Division
  2. Jacobs Consultancy Inc., Houston, TX (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Bioenergy Technologies Office (EE-3B); USDOE Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (EPSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1281146
Report Number(s):
ANL/ESD-16/9
129163
DOE Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Han, Jeongwoo, Wang, Michael, Elgowainy, Amgad, and DiVita, Vincent. Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.2172/1281146.
Han, Jeongwoo, Wang, Michael, Elgowainy, Amgad, & DiVita, Vincent. Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options. United States. doi:10.2172/1281146.
Han, Jeongwoo, Wang, Michael, Elgowainy, Amgad, and DiVita, Vincent. 2016. "Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options". United States. doi:10.2172/1281146. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1281146.
@article{osti_1281146,
title = {Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emission Analysis of High-Octane Fuels with Ethanol Blending: Phase II Analysis with Refinery Investment Options},
author = {Han, Jeongwoo and Wang, Michael and Elgowainy, Amgad and DiVita, Vincent},
abstractNote = {Higher-octane gasoline can enable increases in an internal combustion engine’s energy efficiency and a vehicle’s fuel economy by allowing an increase in the engine compression ratio and/or by enabling downspeeding and downsizing. Producing high-octane fuel (HOF) with the current level of ethanol blending (E10) could increase the energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of the fuel product from refinery operations. Alternatively, increasing the ethanol blending level in final gasoline products could be a promising solution to HOF production because of the high octane rating and potentially low blended Reid vapor pressure (RVP) of ethanol at 25% and higher of the ethanol blending level by volume. In our previous HOF well-to-wheels (WTW) report (the so-called phase I report of the HOF WTW analysis), we conducted WTW analysis of HOF with different ethanol blending levels (i.e., E10, E25, and E40) and a range of vehicle efficiency gains with detailed petroleum refinery linear programming (LP) modeling by Jacobs Consultancy and showed that the overall WTW GHG emission changes associated with HOFVs were dominated by the positive impact associated with vehicle efficiency gains and ethanol blending levels, while the refining operations to produce gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending (BOB) for various HOF blend levels had a much smaller impact on WTW GHG emissions (Han et al. 2015). The scope of the previous phase I study, however, was limited to evaluating PADDs 2 and 3 operation changes with various HOF market share scenarios and ethanol blending levels. Also, the study used three typical configuration models of refineries (cracking, light coking, and heavy coking) in each PADD, which may not be representative of the aggregate response of all refineries in each PADD to various ethanol blending levels and HOF market scenarios. Lastly, the phase I study assumed no new refinery expansion in the existing refineries, which limited E10 HOF production to the volume achievable by the cracking refinery configuration. To be able to satisfy large market demands of E10 HOF, that study arbitrarily relaxed the RVP requirements by replacing reformulated gasoline (RFG) RVP requirement of 7 psi in summer with conventional gasoline (CG) RVP requirement of 9 psi in summer. To examine the response by all refineries in major refinery regions, this phase II of the HOF WTW analysis employed regionally aggregated refinery models for the following six regions: PADDs 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 excluding California (CA) and CA separately. Using aggregate refinery models, this phase II study examined the impacts of ethanol blending and HOF market shares on the refinery operations in these six regions. Also, this study included refinery expansion to produce a pre-determined HOF volume with 10% ethanol blending. In particular, this study examined several refinery expansion options using refinery configuration models to investigate a practical refinery response to the increase in E10 HOF market demand.},
doi = {10.2172/1281146},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = 2016,
month = 8
}

Technical Report:

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  • In this study, we evaluated the impacts of producing HOF with a RON of 100, using a range of ethanol blending levels (E10, E25, and E40), vehicle efficiency gains, and HOF market penetration scenarios (3.4% to 70%), on WTW petroleum use and GHG emissions. In particular, we conducted LP modeling of petroleum refineries to examine the impacts of different HOF production scenarios on petroleum refining energy use and GHG emissions. We compared two cases of HOF vehicle fuel economy gains of 5% and 10% in terms of MPGGE to baseline regular gasoline vehicles. We incorporated three key factors in GREETmore » — (1) refining energy intensities of gasoline components for the various ethanol blending options and market shares, (2) vehicle efficiency gains, and (3) upstream energy use and emissions associated with the production of different crude types and ethanol — to compare the WTW GHG emissions of various HOF/vehicle scenarios with the business-as-usual baseline regular gasoline (87 AKI E10) pathway.« less
  • Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory expanded the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model and incorporated the fuel economy and electricity use of alternative fuel/vehicle systems simulated by the Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit (PSAT) to conduct a well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The WTW results were separately calculated for the blended charge-depleting (CD) and charge-sustaining (CS) modes of PHEV operation and then combined by using a weighting factor that represented the CD vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) share. As indicated by PSAT simulations of the CD operation,more » grid electricity accounted for a share of the vehicle's total energy use, ranging from 6% for a PHEV 10 to 24% for a PHEV 40, based on CD VMT shares of 23% and 63%, respectively. In addition to the PHEV's fuel economy and type of on-board fuel, the marginal electricity generation mix used to charge the vehicle impacted the WTW results, especially GHG emissions. Three North American Electric Reliability Corporation regions (4, 6, and 13) were selected for this analysis, because they encompassed large metropolitan areas (Illinois, New York, and California, respectively) and provided a significant variation of marginal generation mixes. The WTW results were also reported for the U.S. generation mix and renewable electricity to examine cases of average and clean mixes, respectively. For an all-electric range (AER) between 10 mi and 40 mi, PHEVs that employed petroleum fuels (gasoline and diesel), a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline (E85), and hydrogen were shown to offer a 40-60%, 70-90%, and more than 90% reduction in petroleum energy use and a 30-60%, 40-80%, and 10-100% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively, relative to an internal combustion engine vehicle that used gasoline. The spread of WTW GHG emissions among the different fuel production technologies and grid generation mixes was wider than the spread of petroleum energy use, mainly due to the diverse fuel production technologies and feedstock sources for the fuels considered in this analysis. The PHEVs offered reductions in petroleum energy use as compared with regular hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). More petroleum energy savings were realized as the AER increased, except when the marginal grid mix was dominated by oil-fired power generation. Similarly, more GHG emissions reductions were realized at higher AERs, except when the marginal grid generation mix was dominated by oil or coal. Electricity from renewable sources realized the largest reductions in petroleum energy use and GHG emissions for all PHEVs as the AER increased. The PHEVs that employ biomass-based fuels (e.g., biomass-E85 and -hydrogen) may not realize GHG emissions benefits over regular HEVs if the marginal generation mix is dominated by fossil sources. Uncertainties are associated with the adopted PHEV fuel consumption and marginal generation mix simulation results, which impact the WTW results and require further research. More disaggregate marginal generation data within control areas (where the actual dispatching occurs) and an improved dispatch modeling are needed to accurately assess the impact of PHEV electrification. The market penetration of the PHEVs, their total electric load, and their role as complements rather than replacements of regular HEVs are also uncertain. The effects of the number of daily charges, the time of charging, and the charging capacity have not been evaluated in this study. A more robust analysis of the VMT share of the CD operation is also needed.« less
  • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed for mass production by the automotive industry. PHEVs have been touted for their potential to reduce the US transportation sector's dependence on petroleum and cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by (1) using off-peak excess electric generation capacity and (2) increasing vehicles energy efficiency. A well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis - which examines energy use and emissions from primary energy source through vehicle operation - can help researchers better understand the impact of the upstream mix of electricity generation technologies for PHEV recharging, as well as the powertrain technology and fuel sources for PHEVs. Formore » the WTW analysis, Argonne National Laboratory researchers used the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model developed by Argonne to compare the WTW energy use and GHG emissions associated with various transportation technologies to those associated with PHEVs. Argonne researchers estimated the fuel economy and electricity use of PHEVs and alternative fuel/vehicle systems by using the Powertrain System Analysis Toolkit (PSAT) model. They examined two PHEV designs: the power-split configuration and the series configuration. The first is a parallel hybrid configuration in which the engine and the electric motor are connected to a single mechanical transmission that incorporates a power-split device that allows for parallel power paths - mechanical and electrical - from the engine to the wheels, allowing the engine and the electric motor to share the power during acceleration. In the second configuration, the engine powers a generator, which charges a battery that is used by the electric motor to propel the vehicle; thus, the engine never directly powers the vehicle's transmission. The power-split configuration was adopted for PHEVs with a 10- and 20-mile electric range because they require frequent use of the engine for acceleration and to provide energy when the battery is depleted, while the series configuration was adopted for PHEVs with a 30- and 40-mile electric range because they rely mostly on electrical power for propulsion. Argonne researchers calculated the equivalent on-road (real-world) fuel economy on the basis of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency miles per gallon (mpg)-based formulas. The reduction in fuel economy attributable to the on-road adjustment formula was capped at 30% for advanced vehicle systems (e.g., PHEVs, fuel cell vehicles [FCVs], hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], and battery-powered electric vehicles [BEVs]). Simulations for calendar year 2020 with model year 2015 mid-size vehicles were chosen for this analysis to address the implications of PHEVs within a reasonable timeframe after their likely introduction over the next few years. For the WTW analysis, Argonne assumed a PHEV market penetration of 10% by 2020 in order to examine the impact of significant PHEV loading on the utility power sector. Technological improvement with medium uncertainty for each vehicle was also assumed for the analysis. Argonne employed detailed dispatch models to simulate the electric power systems in four major regions of the US: the New England Independent System Operator, the New York Independent System Operator, the State of Illinois, and the Western Electric Coordinating Council. Argonne also evaluated the US average generation mix and renewable generation of electricity for PHEV and BEV recharging scenarios to show the effects of these generation mixes on PHEV WTW results. Argonne's GREET model was designed to examine the WTW energy use and GHG emissions for PHEVs and BEVs, as well as FCVs, regular HEVs, and conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). WTW results are reported for charge-depleting (CD) operation of PHEVs under different recharging scenarios. The combined WTW results of CD and charge-sustaining (CS) PHEV operations (using the utility factor method) were also examined and reported. According to the utility factor method, the share of vehicle miles traveled during CD operation is 25% for PHEV10 and 51% for PHEV40. Argonne's WTW analysis of PHEVs revealed that the following factors significantly impact the energy use and GHG emissions results for PHEVs and BEVs compared with baseline gasoline vehicle technologies: (1) the regional electricity generation mix for battery recharging and (2) the adjustment of fuel economy and electricity consumption to reflect real-world driving conditions. Although the analysis predicted the marginal electricity generation mixes for major regions in the United States, these mixes should be evaluated as possible scenarios for recharging PHEVs because significant uncertainties are associated with the assumed market penetration for these vehicles. Thus, the reported WTW results for PHEVs should be directly correlated with the underlying generation mix, rather than with the region linked to that mix.« less
  • An accurate assessment of future fuel/propulsion system options requires a complete vehicle fuel-cycle analysis, commonly called a well-to-wheels (WTW) analysis. This WTW study analyzes energy use and emissions associated with fuel production (or well-to-tank [WTT]) activities and energy use and emissions associated with vehicle operation (or tank-to-wheels [TTW]) activities.
  • This report examines energy use and emissions from primary energy source through vehicle operation to help researchers understand the impact of the upstream mix of electricity generation technologies for recharging plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), as well as the powertrain technology and fuel sources for PHEVs.