Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

doi:10.1038/ncomms11718

Title: Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal Article · Thu Jun 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11718· OSTI ID:1280976

Meehl, Gerald A. ^[1];

^[1]; Teng, Haiyan ^[1]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC) National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); USDOE Office of Science (SC) Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1280976

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Vol. 7; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 119 works

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Title: Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

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