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Title: Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Abstract

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over themore » period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1274877
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-114427
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326; 400409900
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
climate change impacts; agricultural modeling; forestry modeling; mitigation scenarios; EPIC; MC1; FASOM-GHG; ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE; UNITED-STATES; CO2; GROWTH; YIELD; ECOSYSTEMS; WEATHER; MARKETS; CROPS; WATER

Citation Formats

Beach, Robert H., Cai, Yongxia, Thomson, Allison, Zhang, Xuesong, Jones, Russell, McCarl, Bruce A., Crimmins, Allison, Martinich, Jeremy, Cole, Jefferson, Ohrel, Sara, DeAngelo, Benjamin, McFarland, James, Strzepek, Kenneth, and Boehlert, Brent. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004.
Beach, Robert H., Cai, Yongxia, Thomson, Allison, Zhang, Xuesong, Jones, Russell, McCarl, Bruce A., Crimmins, Allison, Martinich, Jeremy, Cole, Jefferson, Ohrel, Sara, DeAngelo, Benjamin, McFarland, James, Strzepek, Kenneth, & Boehlert, Brent. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004
Beach, Robert H., Cai, Yongxia, Thomson, Allison, Zhang, Xuesong, Jones, Russell, McCarl, Bruce A., Crimmins, Allison, Martinich, Jeremy, Cole, Jefferson, Ohrel, Sara, DeAngelo, Benjamin, McFarland, James, Strzepek, Kenneth, and Boehlert, Brent. 2015. "Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004.
@article{osti_1274877,
title = {Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization},
author = {Beach, Robert H. and Cai, Yongxia and Thomson, Allison and Zhang, Xuesong and Jones, Russell and McCarl, Bruce A. and Crimmins, Allison and Martinich, Jeremy and Cole, Jefferson and Ohrel, Sara and DeAngelo, Benjamin and McFarland, James and Strzepek, Kenneth and Boehlert, Brent},
abstractNote = {Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1274877}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
issn = {1748-9326},
number = 9,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}