Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004

Title: Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Journal Article · Mon May 25 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Global Environmental Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.04.004· OSTI ID:1265481

Absar, Syeda Mariya ^[1]; Preston, Benjamin L. ^[1]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However, the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

View Accepted Manuscript (Publisher)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1265481

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1250374

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 33, Issue C; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 70 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (40)

Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Adger, W. Neil; Dessai, Suraje; Goulden, Marisa Climatic Change, Vol. 93, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9520-z	journal	November 2008
A review of scenario planning Amer, Muhammad; Daim, Tugrul U.; Jetter, Antonie Futures, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003	journal	February 2013
National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments Bierwagen, B. G.; Theobald, D. M.; Pyke, C. R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 49 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002096107	journal	November 2010
Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios Biggs, Reinette; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02051-120117	journal	January 2007
Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change Brand, Fridolin Simon; Seidl, Roman; Le, Quang Bao Ecology and Society, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04972-180243	journal	January 2013
Tailor-made scenario planning for local adaptation to climate change Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik; Wikman-Svahn, Per Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9419-x	journal	October 2012
Linking global and local scales: designing dynamic assessment and management processes Cash, D. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00017-0	journal	July 2000
Improving the usability of integrated assessment for adaptation practice: Insights from the U.S. Southeast energy sector de Bremond, Ariane; Preston, Benjamin L.; Rice, Jennie Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.004	journal	October 2014
Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research Ebi, Kristie International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100030	journal	December 2013
A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3	journal	September 2013
Adaptation in first- and second-best worlds Ebi, Kristie L.; Yohe, Gary Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 5, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.06.004	journal	September 2013
The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways Eom, Jiyong; Edmonds, Jae; Krey, Volker Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.017	journal	January 2015
The next 25 years?: future scenarios and future directions for education and technology: The next 25 years? Facer, K.; Sandford, R. Journal of Computer Assisted Learning, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2729.2009.00337.x	journal	January 2010
Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0361-y	journal	October 2012
A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-Economic Change In The Uk: Part I. Methodology Holman, I. P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Shackley, S. Climatic Change, Vol. 71, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5927-y	journal	July 2005
Climate impact research: beyond patchwork Huber, V.; Schellnhuber, H. J.; Arnell, N. W. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014	journal	January 2014
Thinking Big: A Conservation Vision for the Southeastern Coastal Plain of North America Keddy, Paul A. Southeastern Naturalist, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1656/058.008.0202	journal	July 2009
Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe Kok, Kasper; Biggs, Reinette (Oonsie); Zurek, Monika Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-01971-120108	journal	January 2007
Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development Kok, Kasper; Patel, Mita; Rothman, Dale S. Futures, Vol. 38, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.07.006	journal	April 2006
Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development Kok, Kasper; Rothman, Dale S.; Patel, Mita Futures, Vol. 38, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.07.001	journal	April 2006
The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C.; Hallegatte, Stephane Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005	journal	October 2012
Escalating Water Demand for Energy Production and the Potential for Use of Treated Municipal Wastewater Li, Heng; Chien, Shih-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ming-Kai Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 45, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1021/es1040305	journal	May 2011
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, Jae A.; Hibbard, Kathy A. Nature, Vol. 463, Issue 7282 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823	journal	February 2010
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2	journal	October 2013
Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment Preston, Benjamin L. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 23, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.02.009	journal	August 2013
Putting vulnerability to climate change on the map: a review of approaches, benefits, and risks Preston, Benjamin L.; Yuen, Emma J.; Westaway, Richard M. Sustainability Science, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-011-0129-1	journal	March 2011
Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016	journal	January 2015
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222463110	journal	December 2013
Visions for a sustainable Europe Rotmans, Jan; van Asselt, Marjolein; Anastasi, Chris Futures, Vol. 32, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00033-1	journal	November 2000
Evaluation of the Sustainability of Water Withdrawals in the United States, 1995 to 20251 Roy, Sujoy B.; Ricci, Paolo F.; Summers, Karen V. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03787.x	journal	October 2005
Projecting Water Withdrawal and Supply for Future Decades in the U.S. under Climate Change Scenarios Roy, Sujoy B.; Chen, Limin; Girvetz, Evan H. Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 46, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1021/es2030774	journal	February 2012
Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Bouchard, Michelle A. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.008	journal	October 2012
The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation Thomson, A. M.; Kyle, G. P.; Zhang, X. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 24 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.019	journal	January 2014
Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research van Ruijven, Bas J.; Levy, Marc A.; Agrawal, Arun Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0	journal	September 2013
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; O’Neill, Brian C. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1	journal	October 2013
Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Lucas, Paul L.; Hilderink, Henk Global Environmental Change, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.004	journal	February 2007
A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Riahi, Keywan; Moss, Richard Global Environmental Change, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002	journal	February 2012
Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades Varum, Celeste Amorim; Melo, Carla Futures, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.021	journal	May 2010
Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change Vervoort, Joost M.; Thornton, Philip K.; Kristjanson, Patti Global Environmental Change, Vol. 28 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.001	journal	September 2014
Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments Zurek, Monika B.; Henrichs, Thomas Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 74, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.005	journal	October 2007

Cited By (16)

Future inclusive wealth and human well-being in regional Japan: projections of sustainability indices based on shared socioeconomic pathways Ikeda, Shinya; Managi, Shunsuke Sustainability Science, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0589-7	journal	June 2018
A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps Dullinger, Iwona; Gattringer, Andreas; Wessely, Johannes Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14977	journal	January 2020
How do community-level climate change vulnerability assessments treat future vulnerability and integrate diverse datasets? A review of the literature Windfeld, Emma J.; Ford, James D.; Berrang-Ford, Lea Environmental Reviews, Vol. 27, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2018-0102	journal	December 2019
New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways Kok, Kasper; Pedde, Simona; Gramberger, Marc Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0	journal	August 2018
Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves Krkoška Lorencová, Eliška; Whitham, Charlotte; Bašta, Petr Sustainability, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10061906	journal	June 2018
Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems Zandersen, Marianne; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Meier, H. E. Markus Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1453-0	journal	January 2019
Priority caves for biodiversity conservation in a key karst area of Brazil: comparing the applicability of cave conservation indices Rabelo, Lucas Mendes; Souza-Silva, Marconi; Ferreira, Rodrigo Lopes Biodiversity and Conservation, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1554-6	journal	May 2018
Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy Climatic Change, Vol. 151, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2318-8	journal	November 2018
Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research Schweizer, Vanessa J. Climatic Change, Vol. 162, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02615-2	journal	January 2020
Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios Cradock-Henry, Nicholas A.; Frame, Bob; Preston, Benjamin L. Climatic Change, Vol. 150, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2270-7	journal	August 2018
Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Rohat, Guillaume International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 15, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15030554	journal	March 2018
Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe Terama, Emma; Clarke, Elizabeth; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5	journal	July 2017
Modelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe Terama, E.; Clarke, E.; Rounsevell, M. D. A. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000072196	text	January 2017
Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios Kok, Marcel T. J.; Kok, Kasper; Peterson, Garry D. Sustainability Science, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8	journal	February 2016
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009	journal	January 2017
Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs Mitter, Hermine; Techen, Anja-K.; Sinabell, Franz Global Environmental Change, Vol. 65 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102159	journal	November 2020

Similar Records

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Journal Article · Sat Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Global Environmental Change · OSTI ID:1265481

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; +43 more

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Journal Article · Tue Aug 23 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Global Environmental Change · OSTI ID:1265481

Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; +25 more

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Journal Article · Fri Aug 10 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Water Resources Research · OSTI ID:1265481

Graham, Neal T.; Davies, Evan G. R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; +9 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS
climate change
socioeconomic scenarios
impacts
adaptation
vulnerability

Title: Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

Citation Formats

References (40)

Cited By (16)

Similar Records

Related Subjects