Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

doi:10.1002/2016GL069022

Title: Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

Journal Article · Sat Jun 11 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069022· OSTI ID:1259901

Bernstein, Diana N. ^[1]; Neelin, J. David ^[2]

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles California USA, Department of Soil and Water Sciences, Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment Hebrew University of Jerusalem Rehovot Israel
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles California USA

Abstract A branch‐run perturbed‐physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end‐of‐century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3 mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low‐entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme. This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive “dangerous ranges.” The low‐entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: DE‐SC0006739; SC0006739

OSTI ID:: 1259901

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1261695; OSTI ID: 1436579

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 43 Journal Issue: 11; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 17 works

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