Informativeness of wind data in linear Madden–Julian oscillation prediction

Journal Article · Fri May 13 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Atmospheric Science Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.666· OSTI ID:1253036

Allen, Theodore L. ^[1]; Mapes, Brian E. ^[1]; Cavanaugh, Nicholas ^[2]

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1. Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami FL USA
2. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA

Abstract Linear inverse models (LIMs) are used to explore predictability and information content of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Hindcast skill for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) related to the MJO on intraseasonal timescales in the tropics has been examined for a variety of LIMs using OLR and optionally 200 and 850 hPa zonal wind information channels. The dependence of OLR hindcast skill on wind channels was evaluated by randomizing in time, averaging in space, or omitting data entirely. Results show positive prediction skill (relative to climatology) up to 3 weeks and wind information, mostly at the largest scales, adds 1–2 days of skill.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: DE‐SC0006806
• OSTI ID: 1253036
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1253217
• Journal Information: Atmospheric Science Letters, Journal Name: Atmospheric Science Letters Vol. 17 Journal Issue: 6; ISSN 1530-261X
• Publisher: Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
• Country of Publication: United Kingdom
• Language: English