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Title: Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

Abstract

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in themore » precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [15]
  1. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  2. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate
  3. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
  4. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA
  5. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoping (Sweden). Rossby Centre
  6. Environment Canada, Victoria British Columbia (Canada). Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
  7. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  9. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences,
  10. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka (Japan). Research Institute for Global Change
  11. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Sciences
  12. CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France and CNRS, Toulouse (France)
  13. Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki (Japan). Dept. of Climate Research
  14. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)
  15. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1252214
Grant/Contract Number:  
GA01101; AGS-1228302; NA12OAR4310075; NNX13AM18G; CATER 2013-3142; ATM-0425247; OCI-1053575; TG-ATM120034
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 120; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; diabatic processes; Madden-Julian Oscillation; modeling; convection; Year of Tropical convection; uncertainties

Citation Formats

Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, and Wang, Hailan. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2014JD022718.
Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, & Wang, Hailan. Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022718
Xavier, Prince K., Petch, Jon C., Klingaman, Nicholas P., Woolnough, Steve J., Jiang, Xianan, Waliser, Duane E., Caian, Mihaela, Cole, Jason, Hagos, Samson M., Hannay, Cecile, Kim, Daehyun, Miyakawa, Tomoki, Pritchard, Michael S., Roehrig, Romain, Shindo, Eiki, Vitart, Frederic, and Wang, Hailan. Tue . "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022718. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1252214.
@article{osti_1252214,
title = {Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range},
author = {Xavier, Prince K. and Petch, Jon C. and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Woolnough, Steve J. and Jiang, Xianan and Waliser, Duane E. and Caian, Mihaela and Cole, Jason and Hagos, Samson M. and Hannay, Cecile and Kim, Daehyun and Miyakawa, Tomoki and Pritchard, Michael S. and Roehrig, Romain and Shindo, Eiki and Vitart, Frederic and Wang, Hailan},
abstractNote = {We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.},
doi = {10.1002/2014JD022718},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1252214}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
issn = {2169-897X},
number = 10,
volume = 120,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

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Cited by: 14 works
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Works referenced in this record:

A Simple Dynamical Model with Features of Convective Momentum Transport
journal, February 2009


The Status of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) after Two Years in Orbit
journal, December 2000


Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate
journal, November 2010


Stratiform Precipitation, Vertical Heating Profiles, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, February 2004


The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
journal, January 2011


Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall using PACRAIN data: EVALUATION OF TRMM 3B42 ESTIMATES OF TC RAIN
journal, March 2013


Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans
journal, April 2004


Observed Characteristics of the MJO Relative to Maximum Rainfall
journal, July 2007


Temperature and humidity biases in global climate models and their impact on climate feedbacks
journal, January 2007


The Role of Convective Moistening in the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, November 2009


TOGA COARE: The Coupled Ocean—Atmosphere Response Experiment
journal, September 1992


Sensitivity of MJO simulations to diabatic heating profiles
journal, September 2008


Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations in a Simple Nonlinear Model
journal, September 1993


Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Divergence Response to High Rainfall Events in the Tropics: Observations and Models
journal, July 2010


TWP-ICE global atmospheric model intercomparison: Convection responsiveness and resolution impact: TWP-ICE AGCM INTERCOMPARISON
journal, May 2012


Modelling suppressed and active convection. Comparing a numerical weather prediction, cloud-resolving and single-column model
journal, January 2007


Climate Model Forecast Experiments for TOGA COARE
journal, March 2008


On the Correspondence between Short- and Long-Time-Scale Systematic Errors in CAM4/CAM5 for the Year of Tropical Convection
journal, November 2012


A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 ^|^mdash;Model Description and Basic Performance^|^mdash;
journal, January 2012


Analysis of tropical radiative heating profiles: A comparison of models and observations
journal, January 2007


Thermodynamic control of tropical rainfall
journal, April 2000


Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive: GISS MODEL-E2 CMIP5 SIMULATIONS
journal, March 2014


The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
journal, January 2011


Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Synthesis and summary: MJO PHYSICAL PROCESSES: SYNTHESIS
journal, May 2015


Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific
journal, July 1971


A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in the NCAR Community Climate System Model: Preliminary results
journal, September 2001


Structural Evolution in Heating Profiles of the MJO in Global Reanalyses and TRMM Retrievals
journal, February 2011


A mechanism denial study on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: MJO MECHANISM DENIAL STUDY
journal, April 2011


Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity
journal, December 2010


Analytic Representation of the Large-Scale Organization of Tropical Convection
journal, July 2004


Vertical Diabatic Heating Structure of the MJO: Intercomparison between Recent Reanalyses and TRMM Estimates
journal, October 2011


Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales
journal, July 2008

  • Bechtold, Peter; Köhler, Martin; Jung, Thomas
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 634
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.289

Influence of cloud-radiation interaction on simulating tropical intraseasonal oscillation with an atmospheric general circulation model
journal, July 2001


Structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Superparameterized CAM
journal, November 2009


Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks: PREDICTABILITY OF MONSOON BREAKS
journal, September 2003


Modelling suppressed and active convection: Comparisons between three global atmospheric models
journal, October 2008

  • Willett, M. R.; Bechtold, P.; Williamson, D. L.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 636
  • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.317

Low-Frequency Oscillations in Radiative-Convective Systems
journal, April 1994


Madden-Julian Oscillation
journal, January 2005


The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011


The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization
journal, August 2013


Zonal and Vertical Structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, August 2005


Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening: DIABATIC PROCESSES IN MJO HINDCASTS
journal, May 2015


Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations: KEY PHYSICS IN MODELING THE MJO
journal, May 2015


Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction
journal, December 2004


Potential Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, January 2003


The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
journal, February 2013


Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: The application of process-based diagnostics
journal, November 2012


Process-Oriented MJO Simulation Diagnostic: Moisture Sensitivity of Simulated Convection
journal, July 2014


On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models
journal, February 2014


Evaluation of the Simulated Interannual and Subseasonal Variability in an AMIP-Style Simulation Using the CSU Multiscale Modeling Framework
journal, February 2008


Dreary state of precipitation in global models: MODEL AND OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
journal, December 2010


EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model
journal, December 2011


The MJO and Convectively Coupled Waves in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Simple Multicloud Parameterization
journal, February 2011


Clouds and Climate: Sensitivity of Simple Systems
journal, February 1981


The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008–April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights
journal, August 2012


MJO Signals in Latent Heating: Results from TRMM Retrievals
journal, November 2010


Metrics and Diagnostics for Precipitation-Related Processes in Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts
journal, March 2013


Intraseasonal Convective Moistening in CMIP3 Models
journal, April 2012


Multiscale Convective Organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign
journal, August 2012


The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation
journal, January 2012


    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Analytic Representation of the Large-Scale Organization of Tropical Convection
    journal, July 2004


    Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales
    journal, July 2008

    • Bechtold, Peter; Köhler, Martin; Jung, Thomas
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 634
    • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.289

    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Synthesis and summary: MJO PHYSICAL PROCESSES: SYNTHESIS
    journal, May 2015


    Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: The application of process-based diagnostics
    journal, November 2012


    Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks: PREDICTABILITY OF MONSOON BREAKS
    journal, September 2003


    Observed Characteristics of the MJO Relative to Maximum Rainfall
    journal, July 2007


    A Simple Dynamical Model with Features of Convective Momentum Transport
    journal, February 2009


    Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific
    journal, July 1971


    Structural Evolution in Heating Profiles of the MJO in Global Reanalyses and TRMM Retrievals
    journal, February 2011


    Thermodynamic control of tropical rainfall
    journal, April 2000


    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening: DIABATIC PROCESSES IN MJO HINDCASTS
    journal, May 2015


    Influence of cloud-radiation interaction on simulating tropical intraseasonal oscillation with an atmospheric general circulation model
    journal, July 2001


    Clouds and Climate: Sensitivity of Simple Systems
    journal, February 1981


    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations: KEY PHYSICS IN MODELING THE MJO
    journal, May 2015


    Madden-Julian Oscillation
    journal, January 2005


    Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive: GISS MODEL-E2 CMIP5 SIMULATIONS
    journal, March 2014


    The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6
    journal, January 2017


    The Status of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) after Two Years in Orbit
    journal, December 2000


    A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 ^|^mdash;Model Description and Basic Performance^|^mdash;
    journal, January 2012


    Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans
    journal, April 2004


    Modelling suppressed and active convection. Comparing a numerical weather prediction, cloud-resolving and single-column model
    journal, January 2007


    The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation
    journal, January 2012


    TOGA COARE: The Coupled Ocean—Atmosphere Response Experiment
    journal, September 1992


    Roles of deep and shallow convection and microphysics in the MJO simulated by the Model for Prediction Across Scales: DEEP AND SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE MJO
    journal, September 2016


    Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6
    journal, January 2017


    Intraseasonal Convective Moistening in CMIP3 Models
    journal, April 2012


    Multiscale Convective Organization and the YOTC Virtual Global Field Campaign
    journal, August 2012


    Metrics and Diagnostics for Precipitation-Related Processes in Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts
    journal, March 2013


    The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
    journal, February 2013


    Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations in a Simple Nonlinear Model
    journal, September 1993


    Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction
    journal, December 2004


    Dreary state of precipitation in global models: MODEL AND OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
    journal, December 2010


    EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model
    journal, December 2011


    On the Correspondence between Mean Forecast Errors and Climate Errors in CMIP5 Models
    journal, February 2014


    Process-Oriented MJO Simulation Diagnostic: Moisture Sensitivity of Simulated Convection
    journal, July 2014


    Evaluation of the Simulated Interannual and Subseasonal Variability in an AMIP-Style Simulation Using the CSU Multiscale Modeling Framework
    journal, February 2008


    TWP-ICE global atmospheric model intercomparison: Convection responsiveness and resolution impact: TWP-ICE AGCM INTERCOMPARISON
    journal, May 2012


    Sensitivity of MJO simulations to diabatic heating profiles
    journal, September 2008


    Structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Superparameterized CAM
    journal, November 2009


    The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008–April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights
    journal, August 2012


    Potential Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
    journal, January 2003


    MJO simulation in CMIP5 climate models: MJO skill metrics and process-oriented diagnosis
    journal, March 2017


    Temperature and humidity biases in global climate models and their impact on climate feedbacks
    journal, January 2007


    The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6
    journal, January 2017


    Analysis and Reduction of Systematic Errors through a Seamless Approach to Modeling Weather and Climate
    journal, November 2010


    Atmosphere‐ocean coupled processes in the Madden‐Julian oscillation
    journal, November 2015


    MJO Signals in Latent Heating: Results from TRMM Retrievals
    journal, November 2010


    Connecting spatial and temporal scales of tropical precipitation in observations and the MetUM-GA6
    journal, January 2017


    The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3.0/3.1 and JULES Global Land 3.0/3.1 configurations
    journal, January 2011


    An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models: AN IMPROVED HINDCAST APPROACH
    journal, November 2015


    Vertical Diabatic Heating Structure of the MJO: Intercomparison between Recent Reanalyses and TRMM Estimates
    journal, October 2011


    Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity
    journal, December 2010


    A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in the NCAR Community Climate System Model: Preliminary results
    journal, September 2001


    The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization
    journal, August 2013


    Low-Frequency Oscillations in Radiative-Convective Systems
    journal, April 1994


    Zonal and Vertical Structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
    journal, August 2005


    Stratiform Precipitation, Vertical Heating Profiles, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation
    journal, February 2004


    The MJO and Convectively Coupled Waves in a Coarse-Resolution GCM with a Simple Multicloud Parameterization
    journal, February 2011


    Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall using PACRAIN data: EVALUATION OF TRMM 3B42 ESTIMATES OF TC RAIN
    journal, March 2013


    The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    journal, April 2011


    Atmosphere‐ocean coupled processes in the Madden‐Julian oscillation
    journal, November 2015


    Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations: KEY PHYSICS IN MODELING THE MJO
    journal, May 2015


    Contemporary GCM Fidelity in Representing the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation Over the Maritime Continent
    journal, January 2019


    Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Divergence Response to High Rainfall Events in the Tropics: Observations and Models
    journal, July 2010


    On the Correspondence between Short- and Long-Time-Scale Systematic Errors in CAM4/CAM5 for the Year of Tropical Convection
    journal, November 2012


    Climate Model Forecast Experiments for TOGA COARE
    journal, March 2008


    The Role of Convective Moistening in the Madden–Julian Oscillation
    journal, November 2009


    Modelling suppressed and active convection: Comparisons between three global atmospheric models
    journal, October 2008

    • Willett, M. R.; Bechtold, P.; Williamson, D. L.
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 636
    • https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.317

    Analysis of tropical radiative heating profiles: A comparison of models and observations
    journal, January 2007


    A mechanism denial study on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: MJO MECHANISM DENIAL STUDY
    journal, April 2011