skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Recent advances in risk assessment and risk management of geologic CO2 storage

Journal Article · · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Computational Earth Science
  2. National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States)
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  4. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
  5. Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Earth Science and Engineering
  6. Statoil ASA/NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)
  7. Shell Projects & Technology—Upstream Development, Aberdeen (United Kingdom)
  8. CO2CRC Ltd, Carlton, Victoria (Australia)
  9. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division

This article gives an overview of the advances made in the field of risk assessment and risk management of geologic CO2 storage (GCS), since the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Carbon Capture and Storage in 2005. Development and operation of a wide range of demonstration projects coupled with development of new regulations for safe injection and storage of CO2 have led to development and deployment of a range of risk assessment approaches. New methods and tools have been developed for quantitative and qualitative risk assessment. These methods have been integrated effectively with monitoring and mitigation techniques and deployed in the field for small-scale field tests as well as large-scale commercial projects. An important development has been improved definition of risks, which can be broadly classed as site performance risks, long-term containment risks, public perception risks and market risks. Considerable experience has now been gained on understanding and managing site performance risks. Targeted research on containment risks and induced seismicity risks has led to improved understanding of parameters and processes influencing these risks as well as identifying key uncertainties that need to be targeted. Finally, significant progress has been made to effectively integrate communication strategies with risk management approaches to increase stakeholder confidence in effectiveness of deployed risk management approaches to manage risks.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; AC52-07NA27344; AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1501375
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1251875; OSTI ID: 1840110
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-830559; ark:/13030/qt9v51w7r1
Journal Information:
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 40, Issue C; ISSN 1750-5836
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 114 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (107)

Optimization of well placement, CO2 injection rates, and brine cycling for geological carbon sequestration journal September 2012
Quantitative risk evaluation related to long term CO2 gas leakage along wells journal February 2009
Geomechanical response to CO2 injection at Krechba, In Salah, Algeria journal February 2012
Induced Seismicity during the Stimulation of a Geothermal HFR Reservoir in the Cooper Basin, Australia journal December 2006
Influence of pore-pressure on the event-size distribution of induced earthquakes: PORE PRESSURE AND EQ SIZE DISTRIBUTION journal May 2012
NGA-West2 Research Project journal August 2014
Evaluation of rapid performance reservoir models for quantitative risk assessment journal January 2014
Empirical Green's Functions from small earthquakes: A waveform study of locally recorded aftershocks of the 1971 San Fernando Earthquake journal January 1990
A response surface model to predict CO2 and brine leakage along cemented wellbores journal February 2015
Large-scale impact of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers: A sensitivity study on pressure response in stratified systems journal March 2009
What Have We Learned from Small-scale Injection Projects? journal January 2014
CQUESTRA, a risk and performance assessment code for geological sequestration of carbon dioxide journal January 2008
Analysis and performance of oil well cement with 30 years of CO2 exposure from the SACROC Unit, West Texas, USA journal April 2007
CO2 leakage impacts on shallow groundwater: Field-scale reactive-transport simulations informed by observations at a natural analog site journal March 2013
Brittle-failure controls on maximum sustainable overpressure in different tectonic regimes journal June 2003
CO2 Storage Contingencies Initiative: Detection, Intervention and Remediation of Unexpected CO2 Migration journal January 2013
Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using a Hybrid Approach journal September 2010
Linking microseismic event observations with geomechanical models to minimise the risks of storing CO2 in geological formations journal May 2011
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California journal May 2005
Satellite-based measurements of surface deformation reveal fluid flow associated with the geological storage of carbon dioxide: FLUID FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORAGE OF CO journal February 2010
Evaluation of the Potential for Gas and CO2 Leakage Along Wellbores journal July 2007
Predicting Ground Motion from Induced Earthquakes in Geothermal Areas journal June 2013
Geomechanical modeling for CO2 storage in Nisku aquifer in Wabamun Lake area in Canada journal September 2012
Oil and gas wells and their integrity: Implications for shale and unconventional resource exploitation journal September 2014
Geosphere risk assessment conducted for the IEAGHG Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project journal June 2013
Snøhvit CO2 Storage Project: Assessment of CO2 Injection Performance Through History Matching of the Injection Well Pressure Over a 32-months Period journal January 2013
A risk-based framework for measurement, monitoring and verification of the Quest CCS Project, Alberta, Canada journal July 2014
Bi-directional risk assessment in carbon capture and storage with Bayesian Networks journal April 2015
Pressure transient testing for assessment of wellbore integrity in the IEAGHG Weyburn–Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project journal June 2013
Wellbore integrity and corrosion of carbon steel in CO2 geologic storage environments: A literature review journal June 2013
Spatial characterization of the location of potentially leaky wells penetrating a deep saline aquifer in a mature sedimentary basin journal June 2004
CO2 storage potential at Forties oilfield and the surrounding Paleocene sandstone aquifer accounting for leakage risk through abandoned wells journal January 2014
Overview journal January 1997
Effect of bicarbonate on corrosion of carbon steel in CO2 saturated brines journal November 2011
Plume development around well KB-502 at the In Salah CO2 storage site journal January 2009
Integrated Risk Assessment for CCS journal January 2013
Whole-System Process Modelling of CO2 Storage and its Application to the In Salah CO2 Storage Site, Algeria journal January 2013
The Geomechanics of CO2 Storage in Deep Sedimentary Formations journal January 2012
A Worldwide look at the Cap-Rock Problem journal July 1987
A System Model for Geologic Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide journal February 2009
Statistical analysis of the induced Basel 2006 earthquake sequence: introducing a probability-based monitoring approach for Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Probability-based monitoring approach for EGS journal June 2011
Gas injection may have triggered earthquakes in the Cogdell oil field, Texas journal November 2013
Common Themes in Risk Evaluation Among Eight Geosequestration Projects journal January 2013
Building Robust Models to Forecast the Induced Seismicity Related to Geothermal Reservoir Enhancement journal February 2013
Lessons learned from 14 years of CCS operations: Sleipner, In Salah and Snøhvit journal January 2011
Modeling pressure and saturation distribution in a CO 2 storage project using a Surrogate Reservoir Model (SRM) : Modeling pressure and saturation distribution in a CO journal February 2014
Carbon dioxide storage risk assessment: Analysis of caprock fracture network connectivity journal March 2011
A concept for data-driven uncertainty quantification and its application to carbon dioxide storage in geological formations journal November 2011
Geomechanical Factors Affecting Geological Storage of CO2 in Depleted Oil and Gas Reservoirs journal October 2005
Wellbore integrity analysis of a natural CO2 producer journal March 2010
Degradation of Well Cement by CO 2 under Geologic Sequestration Conditions journal July 2007
Containment Risk Management for CO2 Storage in a Depleted Gas Field, UK North Sea journal January 2013
Time-lapse pressure–saturation discrimination for CO2 storage at the Snøhvit field journal November 2013
The In Salah CO2 Storage Project: Lessons Learned and Knowledge Transfer journal January 2013
Comparisons of the NGA Ground-Motion Relations journal February 2008
Combining microseismic and geomechanical observations to interpret storage integrity at the In Salah CCS site journal May 2014
Integrated modeling and experimental approach for caprock integrity, risk analysis, and long term safety assessment journal February 2009
Well Integrity Assessment of a 68 year old Well at a CO2 Injection Project journal January 2014
No geologic evidence that seismicity causes fault leakage that would render large-scale carbon capture and storage unsuccessful journal December 2012
Evolutionary Optimisation for CO2 Storage Design Using Upscaled Models: Application on a Proximal Area of the Forties Fan System in the UK Central North Sea journal January 2014
Evaluation of risk assessment methodologies using the In Salah CO2 storage project as a case history journal January 2011
Stress-dependent permeability of a de-mineralised fracture in shale journal September 2000
Leakage risk assessment of the In Salah CO2 storage project: Applying the certification framework in a dynamic context journal January 2011
The Flow of Real Gases Through Porous Media journal May 1966
A Tool for Integrating and Communicating Performance-Relevant Information in CO2 Storage Projects: Description and Application to In Salah journal January 2013
Certification framework based on effective trapping for geologic carbon sequestration journal July 2009
Geomechanical effects on CO2 leakage through fault zones during large-scale underground injection journal January 2014
Coalbed methane reservoir data and simulator parameter uncertainty modelling for CO2 storage performance assessment journal October 2007
Development of a Hybrid Process and System Model for the Assessment of Wellbore Leakage at a Geologic CO 2 Sequestration Site journal October 2008
Top-seal leakage through faults and fractures: the role of mudrock properties journal January 1999
A physically based strong ground-motion prediction methodology; application to PSHA and the 1999 Athens earthquake journal February 2007
An improved model to forecast CO2 leakage rates along a wellbore journal January 2011
Analysis of in-situ wellbore integrity data for existing wells with long-term exposure to CO2 journal January 2011
A Phased Approach to Induced Seismicity Risk Management journal January 2014
Earthquakes Induced by the Stimulation of an Enhanced Geothermal System below Basel (Switzerland) journal September 2009
Snøhvit CO2 Monitoring Using Well Pressure Measurement and 4D Seismic conference January 2014
Quantification of Key Long-term Risks at CO2 Sequestration Sites: Latest Results from US DOE's National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) Project journal January 2014
A numerical model for fluid injection induced seismicity at Soultz-sous-Forêts journal April 2010
Well integrity risk assessment of Ketzin injection well (ktzi-201) over a prolonged sequestration period journal January 2011
Environmental Risk Arising From Well Construction Failure: Difference Between Barrier and Well Failure, and Estimates of Failure Frequency Across Common Well Types, Locations and Well Age conference September 2013
Assessment of carbon dioxide plume behaviour within the storage reservoir and the lower caprock around the KB-502 injection well at In Salah journal March 2012
Geologic carbon storage is unlikely to trigger large earthquakes and reactivate faults through which CO 2 could leak journal April 2015
Modelling and Simulation of Mechanisms for Leakage of CO2 from Geological Storage journal February 2009
The Effect of Market and Leasing Conditions on the Techno-economic Performance of Complex CO2 transport and storage value chains journal January 2014
Fracture-permeability behavior of shale journal September 2015
Well completion and integrity evaluation for CO2 injection wells journal May 2015
Analysis of potential leakage pathways at the Cranfield, MS, U.S.A., CO2 sequestration site journal October 2013
Probability of a given-magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection journal January 2007
Second Generation Toolset for Calculation of Induced Seismicity Risk Profiles report April 2013
The evolving perception of risk during reservoir evaluation projects for geological storage of CO2 journal July 2012
Investigation of injection-induced seismicity using a coupled fluid flow and rate/state friction model journal November 2011
A response surface methodology to address uncertainties in cap rock failure assessment for CO2 geological storage in deep aquifers journal March 2010
Meeting CCS communication challenges head-on: Integrating communications, planning, risk assessment, and project management journal January 2011
Control of hazard due to seismicity induced by a hot fractured rock geothermal project journal March 2006
Understanding risk for the long term storage of CO2 in geologic formations book January 2005
CO2 Storage in Coalbeds: Risk Assessment of CO2 and Methane Leakage book January 2005
Earthquake triggering and large-scale geologic storage of carbon dioxide journal June 2012
Illinois Basin-Decatur Project: initial risk-assessment results and framework for evaluating site performance journal February 2009
CO2 Storage Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for the Post-closure Period at the Ketzin Pilot Site in Germany journal January 2014
Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection: Limits on fluid injection earthquakes journal February 2014
A methodology for CO2 storage system risk and uncertainty assessment journal January 2014
Making sense of global sensitivity analyses journal April 2014
Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) journal March 2015
Development of Key Performance Indicators for CO2 Storage Operability and Efficiency Assessment: Application to the Southern North Sea Rotliegend Group journal January 2013
Seismic monitoring at the Decatur, IL, CO2 sequestration demonstration site journal January 2014
Seismogenic index and magnitude probability of earthquakes induced during reservoir fluid stimulations journal March 2010
Snøhvit: The History of Injecting and Storing 1 Mt CO2 in the Fluvial Tubåen Fm journal January 2013

Cited By (8)

Carbon dioxide submarine storage in glass containers: Life Cycle Assessment and cost analysis of four case studies in the cement sector journal March 2019
Maturing global CO2 storage resources on offshore continental margins to achieve 2DS emissions reductions journal November 2019
Principles of sustainability and physics as a basis for the low-carbon energy transition journal April 2017
Potential of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$CO2 based geothermal energy extraction from hot sedimentary and dry rock reservoirs, and enabling carbon geo-sequestration journal January 2020
A Review of CO2 Storage in View of Safety and Cost-Effectiveness journal January 2020
Field‐scale well leakage risk assessment using reduced‐order models journal May 2019
Risk, Liability, and Economic Issues with Long-Term CO2 Storage—A Review journal July 2016
Cost Implications of Uncertainty in CO2 Storage Resource Estimates: A Review journal August 2016