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Title: Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes

Abstract

We consider a general framework to predict the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in a lake driven by uncertain parameters. To quantify the concentration uncertainty of those algae groups via their joint probabilistic density function (PDF), we explore an approach based on the Fokker-Planck equation. Our result is presented in an example where abundant nutrients contribute to the proliferation of cyanobacteria and other minor algae groups.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1239495
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-92718
KJ0401000
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Book
Resource Relation:
Related Information: Modelling and Simulation in Fluid Dynamics in Porous Media. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 28:99-108
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
eco-biology, uncertainty quantification, fokker-planck

Citation Formats

Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.. Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., & Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.. Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes. United States. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
Wang, Peng, Tartakovsky, Daniel M., and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.. Thu . "Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes". United States. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6.
@article{osti_1239495,
title = {Stochastic Forecasting of Algae Blooms in Lakes},
author = {Wang, Peng and Tartakovsky, Daniel M. and Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.},
abstractNote = {We consider a general framework to predict the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in a lake driven by uncertain parameters. To quantify the concentration uncertainty of those algae groups via their joint probabilistic density function (PDF), we explore an approach based on the Fokker-Planck equation. Our result is presented in an example where abundant nutrients contribute to the proliferation of cyanobacteria and other minor algae groups.},
doi = {10.1007/978-1-4614-5055-9_6},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Jan 03 00:00:00 EST 2013},
month = {Thu Jan 03 00:00:00 EST 2013}
}

Book:
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  • We consider the development of harmful algae blooms (HABs) in a lake with uncertain nutrients inflow. Two general frameworks, Fokker-Planck equation and the PDF methods, are developed to quantify the resultant concentration uncertainty of various algae groups, via deriving a deterministic equation of their joint probability density function (PDF). A computational example is examined to study the evolution of cyanobacteria (the blue-green algae) and the impacts of initial concentration and inflow-outflow ratio.
  • New York State has more than 4,000 lakes, ponds, and reservoirs. The gazetteer is an alphabetical listing of all lakes in the state having a surface area greater than 0.01 square mile and includes the following characteristics of each lake: name, county, number of counties in which the lake is located, quadrangle, number of quadrangles on which the lake is located, major and minor drainage basins, latitude, longitude, surface elevation, drainage area, surface area, length of shoreline, and volume. Over 800 unnamed ponds are include in the gazetteer.
  • This book examines the process of model building and forecasting with particular reference to energy. It concentrates on the last twenty years when modelling methodologies and forecasting exercises have multiplied, the models have become increasingly complex, and the forecasts more and more long-term. Using a set of country case studies, the contributors illustrate the many forces which shape energy models and forecasts. They also analyse the ambitious IIASA world energy model.
  • In freshwater lakes, harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) produce toxins that impact human health. However, little is known about the chemical species present in lake spray aerosol (LSA) produced from wave-breaking in freshwater HABs. In this study, a laboratory LSA generator produced aerosols from freshwater samples collected from Lake Michigan and Lake Erie during HAB and non-bloom conditions. Particles were analyzed for size and chemical composition by single particle mass spectrometry, electron microscopy, and fluorescence microscopy, with three distinct types of LSA identified with varying levels of organic carbon and biological material associated with calcium salts. LSAmore » autofluorescence increases with blue-green algae concentration, showing that organic molecules of biological origin are incorporated in LSA from HABs. The number fraction of LSA with biological mass spectral markers also increases with particle diameter (greater than 0.5 μm), showing that HABs have size-dependent impacts on aerosol composition. The highest number fraction of LSA enriched in organic carbon were observed in particles less than 0.5 μm in diameter. Understanding the transfer of organic and biogenic material from freshwater to the atmosphere via LSA particles is crucial for determining health and climate effects due to HABs.« less