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Title: Dynamic Potential Intensity: An improved representation of the ocean's impact on tropical cyclones

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064822· OSTI ID:1233762
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Seattle, WA (United States)
  2. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  4. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  5. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
  6. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL (United States)
  7. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
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To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average of temperature down to a fixed depth was proposed as a replacement for SST within the framework of air-sea coupled Potential Intensity (PI). However, the depth to which TC-induced mixing penetrates may vary substantially with ocean stratification and storm state. To account for these effects, here we develop a “Dynamic Potential Intensity” (DPI) based on considerations of stratified fluid turbulence. For the Argo period 2004–2013 and the three major TC basins of the Northern Hemisphere, we show that the DPI explains 11–32% of the variance in TC intensification, compared to 0–16% using previous methods. Here, the improvement obtained using the DPI is particularly large in the eastern Pacific where the thermocline is shallow and ocean stratification effects are strong.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1233762
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-112691; KP1703010
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 16; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 58 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (10)

Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) over Shallow Water journal July 2019
Contribution of hurricane-induced sediment resuspension to coastal oxygen dynamics journal October 2018
Influence of air–sea coupling on Indian Ocean tropical cyclones journal February 2018
OSSE quantitative assessment of rapid‐response prestorm ocean surveys to improve coupled tropical cyclone prediction journal July 2017
The Tropical Atlantic Observing System journal May 2019
Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones journal July 2019
Satellite Salinity Observing System: Recent Discoveries and the Way Forward journal May 2019
A statistical comparison of the potential intensity index for tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific journal January 2020
Scaling of Drag Coefficients Under Five Tropical Cyclones journal March 2019
An Index to Better Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in the Western North Pacific journal August 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
tropical cyclones
ocean stratification
potential intensity
sea surface temperature