A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions

Yan, Huiping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Wang, Hailong; Wang, Minghuai; Yang, Ben; Liu, Xiaohong; Fu, Qiang

doi:10.1002/2015JD023442

Title: A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions

Journal Article · Sun Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023442· OSTI ID:1229995

Yan, Huiping ^[1]; Qian, Yun ^[2]; Zhao, Chun ^[2];

^[2]; Wang, Minghuai ^[3]; Yang, Ben ^[4]; Liu, Xiaohong ^[5]; Fu, Qiang ^[6]

Lanzhou Univ. (China); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Nanjing Univ. (China); Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, Nanjing (China)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nanjing Univ. (China)
Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Lanzhou Univ. (China); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

In this paper, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. The relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1229995

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-109382; KP1703010

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 17; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 17 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (65)

Quantifying parameter sensitivity, interaction, and transferability in hydrologically enhanced versions of the Noah land surface model over transition zones during the warm season Rosero, Enrique; Yang, Zong-Liang; Wagener, Thorsten Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012035	journal	January 2010
Low discrepancy sequences in high dimensions: How well are their projections distributed? Wang, Xiaoqun; Sloan, Ian H. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 213, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2007.01.005	journal	April 2008
Interactive coupling of regional climate and sulfate aerosol models over eastern Asia Qian, Yun; Giorgi, Filippo Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 104, Issue D6 https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD02347	journal	March 1999
Global dust model intercomparison in AeroCom phase I Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-7781-2011	journal	January 2011
A novel approach for determining source–receptor relationships in model simulations: a case study of black carbon transport in northern hemisphere winter Ma, Po-Lun; Gattiker, James R.; Liu, Xiaohong Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024042	journal	June 2013
New Directions: Light absorbing aerosols and their atmospheric impacts Wang, Yuan; Khalizov, Alexei; Levy, Misti Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 81 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.09.034	journal	December 2013
From MONEX to the global monsoon: A review of monsoon system research Ding, Yihui; Liu, Yanju; Song, Yafang Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-0008-7	journal	November 2014
Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols on the Indian Monsoon Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Collins, William D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1777.1	journal	June 2008
A New Two-Moment Bulk Stratiform Cloud Microphysics Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 3 (CAM3). Part I: Description and Numerical Tests Morrison, Hugh; Gettelman, Andrew Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2105.1	journal	August 2008
Toward a minimal representation of aerosols in climate models: description and evaluation in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 Liu, X.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-709-2012	journal	January 2012
More frequent cloud-free sky and less surface solar radiation in China from 1955 to 2000: CLOUDS AND RADIATION IN CHINA Qian, Yun; Kaiser, Dale P.; Leung, L. Ruby Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024586	journal	January 2006
Climate response of the South Asian monsoon system to anthropogenic aerosols: CLIMATE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL Ganguly, Dilip; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017508	journal	July 2012
Asian summer monsoon anomalies induced by aerosol direct forcing: the role of the Tibetan Plateau Lau, K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 26, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0114-z	journal	February 2006
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment: BLACK CARBON IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50171	journal	June 2013
The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview Yihui, Ding; Chan, Johnny C. L. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 89, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z	journal	June 2005
Taklimakan dust aerosol radiative heating derived from CALIPSO observations using the Fu-Liou radiation model with CERES constraints Huang, J.; Fu, Q.; Su, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-4011-2009	journal	January 2009
Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model Zhang, G. J.; McFarlane, Norman A. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 33, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1995.9649539	journal	September 1995
The effects of black carbon and sulphate aerosols in China regions on East Asia monsoons Liu, Yu; Sun, Jiaren; Yang, Bai Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 61, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00427.x	journal	January 2009
Impact of an improved longwave radiation model, RRTM, on the energy budget and thermodynamic properties of the NCAR community climate model, CCM3 Iacono, Michael J.; Mlawer, Eli J.; Clough, Shepard A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 105, Issue D11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900091	journal	June 2000
Global simulations of ice nucleation and ice supersaturation with an improved cloud scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model Gettelman, A.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013797	journal	January 2010
Absorbing aerosols facilitate transition of Indian monsoon breaks to active spells Manoj, M. G.; Devara, P. C. S.; Safai, P. D. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0971-3	journal	December 2010
Sensitivity of aerosol indirect effects to cloud nucleation and autoconversion parameterizations in short-range weather forecasts during the May 2003 aerosol IOP: SENSITIVITY OF AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECTS Chuang, Catherine C.; Kelly, James T.; Boyle, James S. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012MS000161	journal	March 2012
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave Mlawer, Eli J.; Taubman, Steven J.; Brown, Patrick D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 102, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD00237	journal	July 1997
Sensitivity of remote aerosol distributions to representation of cloud–aerosol interactions in a global climate model Wang, H.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-765-2013	journal	January 2013
Climate response of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon Chung, Serena H. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue D11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005441	journal	January 2005
A sensitivity study of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere to cloud-microphysics and aerosol parameters in the community atmosphere model CAM5 Zhao, C.; Liu, X.; Qian, Y. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10969-2013	journal	January 2013
Mapping the uncertainty in global CCN using emulation Lee, L. A.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pringle, K. J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 12, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-9739-2012	journal	January 2012
The sensitivity of tropical convective precipitation to the direct radiative forcings of black carbon aerosols emitted from major regions Wang, C. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 27, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-27-3705-2009	journal	January 2009
The Relative Roles of Sulfate Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases in Climate Forcing Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P. Science, Vol. 260, Issue 5106 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.260.5106.311	journal	April 1993
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Lamarque, J. -F.; Bond, T. C.; Eyring, V. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010	journal	January 2010
The Impact of Convection on ENSO: From a Delayed Oscillator to a Series of Events Neale, Richard B.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Jochum, Markus Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2244.1	journal	November 2008
Long-range transport and vertical structure of Asian dust from CALIPSO and surface measurements during PACDEX Huang, Jianping; Minnis, Patrick; Chen, Bin Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010620	journal	January 2008
Climatic effects of different aerosol types in China simulated by the UCLA general circulation model Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.; Xue, Y. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006312	journal	January 2006
A modeling study of the effects of direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia Zhang, Hua; Wang, Zhili; Guo, Pinwen Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0057-5	journal	January 2009
Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon Ramanathan, V.; Carmichael, G. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo156	journal	March 2008
Multidimensional Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian Transport Schemes Lin, Shian-Jiann; Rood, Richard B. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 124, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1996)124<2046:MFFSLT>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 1996
Climate Effects of Black Carbon Aerosols in China and India Menon, S. Science, Vol. 297, Issue 5590 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075159	journal	September 2002
Using an explicit emission tagging method in global modeling of source-receptor relationships for black carbon in the Arctic: Variations, sources, and transport pathways: Source attribution of BC in the Arctic Wang, Hailong; Rasch, Philip J.; Easter, Richard C. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022297	journal	November 2014
Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution Xu, Qun Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 35, Issue 30 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00315-6	journal	October 2001
Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols Charlson, R. J.; Schwartz, S. E.; Hales, J. M. Science, Vol. 255, Issue 5043 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.423	journal	January 1992
Impact of parametric uncertainties on the present-day climate and on the anthropogenic aerosol effect Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-11373-2010	journal	January 2010
Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols Evan, Amato T.; Kossin, James P.; ‘Eddy’ Chung, Chul Nature, Vol. 479, Issue 7371 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10552	journal	November 2011
CMIP5/AMIP GCM simulations of East Asian summer monsoon Feng, Jinming; Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 31, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-3131-y	journal	May 2014
Direct radiative forcing and regional climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols over East Asia: A regional coupled climate-chemistry/aerosol model study Giorgi, Filippo Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue D20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001066	journal	January 2002
Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950–2000 Li, Hongmei; Dai, Aiguo; Zhou, Tianjun Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7	journal	November 2008
Regional simulation of anthropogenic sulfur over East Asia and its sensitivity to model parameters Qian, Yun; Giorgi, Filippo; Huang, Yan Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 53, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v53i2.16573	journal	January 2001
Long-term impacts of aerosols on the vertical development of clouds and precipitation Li, Zhanqing; Niu, Feng; Fan, Jiwen Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1313	journal	November 2011
Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis L. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x	journal	April 2015
Uncertainty analysis for estimates of the first indirect aerosol effect Chen, Y.; Penner, J. E. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 5, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-5-2935-2005	journal	January 2005
Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models: RESPONSES OF EASM TO EXTERNAL FORCINGS Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058705	journal	January 2014
Parameterization of optical properties for hydrated internally mixed aerosol: PARAMETERIZATION OF OPTICAL PROPERTIES FOR HYDRATED AEROSOL Ghan, Steven J.; Zaveri, Rahul A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 112, Issue D10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007927	journal	May 2007
Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and precipitation: A review of recent progresses Wang, Chien Atmospheric Research, Vol. 122 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.11.005	journal	March 2013
The magnitude and causes of uncertainty in global model simulations of cloud condensation nuclei Lee, L. A.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C. L. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-8879-2013	journal	January 2013
A New Two-Moment Bulk Stratiform Cloud Microphysics Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 3 (CAM3). Part II: Single-Column and Global Results Gettelman, A.; Morrison, H.; Ghan, S. J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2116.1	journal	August 2008
Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Piani, C.; Ingram, W. J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 30, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0280-7	journal	July 2007
A numerical study of the effect of different aerosol types on East Asian summer clouds and precipitation Jiang, Yiquan; Liu, Xiaohong; Yang, Xiu-Qun Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.12.039	journal	May 2013
Parameter sensitivity analysis for different complexity land surface models using multicriteria methods Bastidas, L. A.; Hogue, T. S.; Sorooshian, S. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006377	journal	January 2006
On minimum relative entropy concepts and prior compatibility issues in vadose zone inverse and forward modeling: ON MRE CONCEPT AND PRIOR COMPATIBILITY ISSUES Hou, Zhangshuan; Rubin, Yoram Water Resources Research, Vol. 41, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004082	journal	December 2005
Parametric sensitivity analysis of precipitation at global and local scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5 Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Hou, Zhangshuan Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000354	journal	April 2015
Inter‐decadal variation of the summer precipitation in East China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Part I: Observed evidences Ding, Yihui; Wang, Zunya; Sun, Ying International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1615	journal	July 2008
Sensitivity analysis of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, S.; Gupta, H. V. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 101, Issue D3 https://doi.org/10.1029/95JD03161	journal	March 1996
Implementation of a two-moment bulk microphysics scheme to the WRF model to investigate aerosol-cloud interaction Li, Guohui; Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Renyi Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009361	journal	January 2008
Heavy pollution suppresses light rain in China: Observations and modeling Qian, Yun; Gong, Daoyi; Fan, Jiwen Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011575	journal	January 2009
Light-absorbing particles in snow and ice: Measurement and modeling of climatic and hydrological impact Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-0010-0	journal	November 2014
Modeling the transport and radiative forcing of Taklimakan dust over the Tibetan Plateau: A case study in the summer of 2006: TRANSPORT AND RADIATIVE FORCING OF DUST Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Zhao, Chun Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50122	journal	January 2013

Cited By (2)

Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China Shi, Ying; Wang, Guiling; Gao, Xuejie Climate Dynamics, Vol. 51, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4018-x	journal	November 2017
Investigating the linkage between simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly based on multi-model and perturbed parameter ensembles Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Guo, Zhun Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 139, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02990-x	journal	September 2019

Similar Records

Investigation of Aerosol Indirect Effects using a Cumulus Microphysics Parameterization in a Regional Climate Model

Journal Article · Wed Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2014 · Journal of Geophysical Research. D. (Atmospheres), 119(2):906–926 · OSTI ID:1229995

Lim, Kyo-Sun; Fan, Jiwen; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; +6 more

Chapter 3: Evaluating the impacts of carbonaceous aerosols on clouds and climate

Book · Mon Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2007 · OSTI ID:1229995

Menon, Surabi; Del Genio, Anthony D

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Journal Article · Thu Jul 30 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) · OSTI ID:1229995

Ren, Lili; Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; +3 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
aerosol effects
East Asian climate
uncertainties
cloud microphysics
emissions

Title: A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions

Citation Formats

References (65)

Cited By (2)

Similar Records

Related Subjects