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Title: Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models

Abstract

Multi-model ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill-based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve (“one model – one vote”) integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (–1.16 vs. –1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1221484
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-110543
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703020
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 42; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntingzger, Deborah, Fisher, Joshua B., Michalak, A. M., Bowman, Kevin, Cias, Philippe, Cook, Robert B., El-Masri, Bassil, Hayes, Daniel J., Huang, Maoyi, Ito, A., Jain, Atul K., King, Anthony W., Lei, Huimin, Liu, Junjie, Lu, Chaoqun, Mao, Jiafu, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin, Shi, Xiaoying, Tao, Bo, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wei, Yaxing, Yang, Jia, and Zeng, Ning. Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2015GL064002.
Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntingzger, Deborah, Fisher, Joshua B., Michalak, A. M., Bowman, Kevin, Cias, Philippe, Cook, Robert B., El-Masri, Bassil, Hayes, Daniel J., Huang, Maoyi, Ito, A., Jain, Atul K., King, Anthony W., Lei, Huimin, Liu, Junjie, Lu, Chaoqun, Mao, Jiafu, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin, Shi, Xiaoying, Tao, Bo, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wei, Yaxing, Yang, Jia, & Zeng, Ning. Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models. United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL064002.
Schwalm, Christopher R., Huntingzger, Deborah, Fisher, Joshua B., Michalak, A. M., Bowman, Kevin, Cias, Philippe, Cook, Robert B., El-Masri, Bassil, Hayes, Daniel J., Huang, Maoyi, Ito, A., Jain, Atul K., King, Anthony W., Lei, Huimin, Liu, Junjie, Lu, Chaoqun, Mao, Jiafu, Peng, Shushi, Poulter, Benjamin, Ricciuto, Daniel M., Schaefer, Kevin, Shi, Xiaoying, Tao, Bo, Tian, Hanqin, Wang, Weile, Wei, Yaxing, Yang, Jia, and Zeng, Ning. Wed . "Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models". United States. doi:10.1002/2015GL064002.
@article{osti_1221484,
title = {Toward “optimal” integration of terrestrial biosphere models},
author = {Schwalm, Christopher R. and Huntingzger, Deborah and Fisher, Joshua B. and Michalak, A. M. and Bowman, Kevin and Cias, Philippe and Cook, Robert B. and El-Masri, Bassil and Hayes, Daniel J. and Huang, Maoyi and Ito, A. and Jain, Atul K. and King, Anthony W. and Lei, Huimin and Liu, Junjie and Lu, Chaoqun and Mao, Jiafu and Peng, Shushi and Poulter, Benjamin and Ricciuto, Daniel M. and Schaefer, Kevin and Shi, Xiaoying and Tao, Bo and Tian, Hanqin and Wang, Weile and Wei, Yaxing and Yang, Jia and Zeng, Ning},
abstractNote = {Multi-model ensembles (MME) are commonplace in Earth system modeling. Here we perform MME integration using a 10-member ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Multi-scale synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). We contrast optimal (skill-based for present-day carbon cycling) versus naïve (“one model – one vote”) integration. MsTMIP optimal and naïve mean land sink strength estimates (–1.16 vs. –1.15 Pg C per annum respectively) are statistically indistinguishable. This holds also for grid cell values and extends to gross uptake, biomass, and net ecosystem productivity. TBM skill is similarly indistinguishable. The added complexity of skill-based integration does not materially change MME values. This suggests that carbon metabolism has predictability limits and/or that all models and references are misspecified. Resolving this issue requires addressing specific uncertainty types (initial conditions, structure, references) and a change in model development paradigms currently dominant in the TBM community.},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064002},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {0094-8276},
number = 11,
volume = 42,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {6}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

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