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Title: Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies

Abstract

Comprehensive explosion monitoring requires the technical capability to identify certain signatures at low signal strengths. For particularly small, evasively conducted explosions, conventional monitoring methods that use single geophysical phenomenologies may produce marginal or absent detections. To address this challenge, we recorded coincident acoustic, seismic and radio-frequency emissions during the above-ground detonation of ~ 2-12 kg solid charges and assessed how waveform data could be fused to increase explosion-screening capability. Our data provided identifiable explosion signatures that we implemented as template-events in multichannel correlation detectors to search for similar, matching waveforms. We thereby observed that these highly sensitive correlation detectors missed explosive events when applied separately to data streams that were heavily contaminated with noise and signal clutter. By then adding the p-values of these statistics through Fisher’s combined probability test, we correctly identified the explosion signals at thresholds consistent with the false alarm rates of the correlation detectors. This resulting Fisher test thereby provided high-probability detections, zero false alarms, and higher theoretical detection capability. We conclude that inclusion of these fusion methods in routine monitoring operations will likely lower both detection thresholds for small explosions, while reducing false attribution rates.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1215651
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-14-29077
DOE Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: CTBT: Science and Technology 2015 (SnT2015), 22-26 Jun 2015, Vienna (Austria); Related Information: May also end up in Geophysical Journal International, ISSN 0956-540X
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; 45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; Data fusion; seismology; infrasound; acoustics; radio frequency emissions; p-values; correlation detectors; statistics; chemical explosions; high explosives

Citation Formats

Carmichael, Joshua D., Nemzek, Robert J., Arrowsmith, Stephen J., and Sentz, Kari. Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies. United States: N. p., 2015. Web.
Carmichael, Joshua D., Nemzek, Robert J., Arrowsmith, Stephen J., & Sentz, Kari. Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies. United States.
Carmichael, Joshua D., Nemzek, Robert J., Arrowsmith, Stephen J., and Sentz, Kari. Mon . "Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_1215651,
title = {Detecting Weak Explosions at Local Distances by Fusing Multiple Geophysical Phenomenologies},
author = {Carmichael, Joshua D. and Nemzek, Robert J. and Arrowsmith, Stephen J. and Sentz, Kari},
abstractNote = {Comprehensive explosion monitoring requires the technical capability to identify certain signatures at low signal strengths. For particularly small, evasively conducted explosions, conventional monitoring methods that use single geophysical phenomenologies may produce marginal or absent detections. To address this challenge, we recorded coincident acoustic, seismic and radio-frequency emissions during the above-ground detonation of ~ 2-12 kg solid charges and assessed how waveform data could be fused to increase explosion-screening capability. Our data provided identifiable explosion signatures that we implemented as template-events in multichannel correlation detectors to search for similar, matching waveforms. We thereby observed that these highly sensitive correlation detectors missed explosive events when applied separately to data streams that were heavily contaminated with noise and signal clutter. By then adding the p-values of these statistics through Fisher’s combined probability test, we correctly identified the explosion signals at thresholds consistent with the false alarm rates of the correlation detectors. This resulting Fisher test thereby provided high-probability detections, zero false alarms, and higher theoretical detection capability. We conclude that inclusion of these fusion methods in routine monitoring operations will likely lower both detection thresholds for small explosions, while reducing false attribution rates.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Mon Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

Conference:
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