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Title: ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

Abstract

The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical salesmore » data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.« less

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
Contributing Org.:
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C.
OSTI Identifier:
1215110
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5400-63608
Journal ID: ISSN 0148--7191
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Journal Volume: 1; Conference: SAE 2015 World Congress and Exhibition, 21-23 April 2015, Detroit, Michigan; Related Information: Posted with permission
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; ADOPT; AUTOMOTIVE DEPLOYMENT OPTIONS PROJECTION TOOL; MODEL; CONSUMER CHOICE; TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT

Citation Formats

Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.
Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., & Ward, J. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model. United States. doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.
Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J. Mon . "ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model". United States. doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1215110.
@article{osti_1215110,
title = {ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model},
author = {Brooker, A. and Gonder, J. and Lopp, S. and Ward, J.},
abstractNote = {The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.},
doi = {10.4271/2015-01-0974},
journal = {},
issn = {0148--7191},
number = ,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {5}
}

Conference:
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