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Title: High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America

Abstract

This study performs high-spatial-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over a very large domain (7200 km × 6180 km, covering much of North America) to explore changes in mean and extreme precipitation in the mid and late 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We evaluate WRF model performance for a historical simulation and future projections, applying the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) as initial and boundary conditions with and without a bias correction. WRF simulations using boundary and initial conditions from both versions of CCSM4 show smaller biases versus evaluation data sets than does CCSM4 over western North America. WRF simulations also improve spatial details of precipitation over much of North America. However, driving the WRF with the bias-corrected CCSM4 does not always reduce the bias. WRF-projected changes in precipitation include decreasing intensity over the southwestern United States, increasing intensity over the eastern United States and most of Canada, and an increase in the number of days with heavy precipitation over much of North America. Projected precipitation changes are more evident in the late 21st century than the mid 21st century, and they are more evident under RCPmore » 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 in the late 21st century. Uncertainties in the projected changes in precipitation due to different warming scenarios are non-negligible. Differences in summer precipitation changes between WRF and CCSM4 are significant over most of the United States.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1212863
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Wang, Jiali, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.1002/2015ef000304.
Wang, Jiali, & Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000304
Wang, Jiali, and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R. 2015. "High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015ef000304. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1212863.
@article{osti_1212863,
title = {High-resolution dynamically downscaled projections of precipitation in the mid and late 21st century over North America},
author = {Wang, Jiali and Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.},
abstractNote = {This study performs high-spatial-resolution (12 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over a very large domain (7200 km × 6180 km, covering much of North America) to explore changes in mean and extreme precipitation in the mid and late 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We evaluate WRF model performance for a historical simulation and future projections, applying the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) as initial and boundary conditions with and without a bias correction. WRF simulations using boundary and initial conditions from both versions of CCSM4 show smaller biases versus evaluation data sets than does CCSM4 over western North America. WRF simulations also improve spatial details of precipitation over much of North America. However, driving the WRF with the bias-corrected CCSM4 does not always reduce the bias. WRF-projected changes in precipitation include decreasing intensity over the southwestern United States, increasing intensity over the eastern United States and most of Canada, and an increase in the number of days with heavy precipitation over much of North America. Projected precipitation changes are more evident in the late 21st century than the mid 21st century, and they are more evident under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 in the late 21st century. Uncertainties in the projected changes in precipitation due to different warming scenarios are non-negligible. Differences in summer precipitation changes between WRF and CCSM4 are significant over most of the United States.},
doi = {10.1002/2015ef000304},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1212863}, journal = {Earth's Future},
issn = {2328-4277},
number = 7,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Wed Jul 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Vegetation Responses to 2012–2016 Drought in Northern and Southern California
journal, April 2019


Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Future Temperature Extremes: High‐Resolution Dynamic Downscaling Over a Complex Terrain
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Improving the Reliability and Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling via Correction of Large‐Scale Errors: A Norwegian Perspective
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Updates to the Noah Land Surface Model in WRF-CMAQ to Improve Simulated Meteorology, Air Quality, and Deposition
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High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City
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Large‐scale regional model biases in the extratropical North Atlantic storm track and impacts on downstream precipitation
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  • Pontoppidan, Marie; Kolstad, Erik W.; Sobolowski, Stefan P.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue 723
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